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13 March 2007

KenPom runs numbers on West bracket

posted by Pete @ LetsGoNova.com
3/13/2007 05:29:00 PM

Ken Pomeroy, the statistical oracle of college basketball, has published his much-vaunted "Log5" analysis on Villanova's West bracket of the NCAA Tournament.

The Log5 method is simply the application of a statistical formula to every possible NCAA tournament game for a given team.

The basic formula:

A - A * B
WPct = -----------------
A + B - 2 * A * B

where "A" is team A's winning percentage and "B" is team B's winning percentage.

Pomeroy's analysis confirms the conventional wisdom about the top-side of the bracket. Namely, that the first pod, with Kansas, Villanova, and Kentucky, is quite strong, whereas the next pod, featuring Virginia Tech, Illinois, Southern Illinois, and Holy Cross, is extremely weak.

According to Ken, "The Jayhawks have the worst chance of all the No. 1’s to get to the Sweet 16, but the 2nd best to win the championship." I would agree with that.

Below are the numbers for the full bracket. Note that Villanova has the seventh-best chance of the 16-team region to advance to the Final Four.

                 2nd Rd  Sweet16   Elite8   Final4   
1 Kansas 99.19% 78.52% 66.68% 48.48%
2 UCLA 98.08% 67.22% 38.23% 16.59%
6 Duke 86.21% 51.88% 27.54% 11.37%
3 Pittsburgh 89.71% 43.85% 20.50% 7.35%
7 Indiana 71.17% 26.83% 11.68% 3.76%
8 Kentucky 50.09% 10.76% 6.46% 2.69%
9 Villanova 49.91% 10.69% 6.41% 2.67%
12 Illinois 50.70% 30.03% 6.59% 2.29%
5 Va. Tech 49.30% 28.88% 6.21% 2.12%
4 S. Illinois 82.89% 38.49% 7.52% 2.36%
10 Gonzaga 28.83% 5.86% 1.43% 0.25%
11 VCU 13.79% 3.05% 0.49% 0.06%
13 Holy Cross 17.11% 2.60% 0.13% 0.01%
14 Wright St. 10.29% 1.22% 0.12% 0.01%
15 Weber St. 1.92% 0.09% 0.00% 0.00%
16 Play-In 0.81% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00%

According to the Log5 numbers, the Villanova-Kentucky game is extremely close. Kentucky is favored by 18 one-hundreths of a percentage point. As KenPom himself says:

Villanova has been playing better over the past month, while Kentucky’s defense has continued to regress. But Kentucky’s schedule has been the toughest in the land. The health of Mike Nardi could be crucial in deciding this one.

The Log5 also says that Villanova has only a 0.27 percent chance to win the National Championship. Hey, that's only 369.37-to-1. For comparison, Kansas's odds, according to the Log5, are 4.29-to-1. Florida's Log5 odds for a national title are significantly worse at 8.22-to-1.

In reality, I would put Villanova's odds at slightly better than 370-to-1. If the team gets rolling and can get to the Sweet 16, the draw is very favorable. Bodog is taking bets on 'Nova to win it all at 70-1, and perhaps double that would be the fair odds.

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At 9:51 PM, March 13, 2007, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Nardi Update...Hope it's OK to post...

Associated Press

VILLANOVA, Pa. -- Villanova point guard Mike Nardi suffered a setback Tuesday when he left practice because of lingering discomfort in his sprained left ankle.

Nardi, who also has a strained calf, hurt the ankle against Syracuse on March 3, and hoped a few days off would help. He played sparingly in the Big East tournament, but said nothing would keep him out of the Wildcats' NCAA tournament game against Kentucky on Friday night.

"He struggled today," coach Jay Wright said. "He started a little bit yesterday. Then he tweaked it. He said he felt good today. He started again and pulled himself out. I don't know. It's not drastic, but it's not where we want it to be."

Villanova (22-10) earned its third straight trip to the tournament and is seeded ninth, scheduled to go against No. 8 Kentucky (21-11) in the West Regional.

Copyright 2007 Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

At 10:16 PM, March 13, 2007, Blogger Pete said...

Thanks... I was going to post an update regarding this for tomorrow morning.


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