KenPom runs numbers on West bracket

Ken Pomeroy, the statistical oracle of college basketball, has published his much-vaunted "Log5" analysis on Villanova's West bracket of the NCAA Tournament.

The Log5 method is simply the application of a statistical formula to every possible NCAA tournament game for a given team.

The basic formula:

 
             A - A * B
  WPct = -----------------
         A + B - 2 * A * B

where "A" is team A's winning percentage and "B" is team B's winning percentage.

Pomeroy's analysis confirms the conventional wisdom about the top-side of the bracket. Namely, that the first pod, with Kansas, Villanova, and Kentucky, is quite strong, whereas the next pod, featuring Virginia Tech, Illinois, Southern Illinois, and Holy Cross, is extremely weak.

According to Ken, "The Jayhawks have the worst chance of all the No. 1’s to get to the Sweet 16, but the 2nd best to win the championship." I would agree with that.

Below are the numbers for the full bracket. Note that Villanova has the seventh-best chance of the 16-team region to advance to the Final Four.

                 2nd Rd  Sweet16   Elite8   Final4   
1   Kansas       99.19%   78.52%   66.68%   48.48%   
2   UCLA         98.08%   67.22%   38.23%   16.59%    
6   Duke         86.21%   51.88%   27.54%   11.37%    
3   Pittsburgh   89.71%   43.85%   20.50%    7.35%   
7   Indiana      71.17%   26.83%   11.68%    3.76%    
8   Kentucky     50.09%   10.76%    6.46%    2.69%   
9   Villanova    49.91%   10.69%    6.41%    2.67%
12  Illinois     50.70%   30.03%    6.59%    2.29%    
5   Va. Tech     49.30%   28.88%    6.21%    2.12%    
4   S. Illinois  82.89%   38.49%    7.52%    2.36%    
10  Gonzaga      28.83%    5.86%    1.43%    0.25%    
11  VCU          13.79%    3.05%    0.49%    0.06%    
13  Holy Cross   17.11%    2.60%    0.13%    0.01%    
14  Wright St.   10.29%    1.22%    0.12%    0.01%    
15  Weber St.     1.92%    0.09%    0.00%    0.00%    
16  Play-In       0.81%    0.02%    0.00%    0.00%   

According to the Log5 numbers, the Villanova-Kentucky game is extremely close. Kentucky is favored by 18 one-hundreths of a percentage point. As KenPom himself says:

Villanova has been playing better over the past month, while Kentucky’s defense has continued to regress. But Kentucky’s schedule has been the toughest in the land. The health of Mike Nardi could be crucial in deciding this one.

The Log5 also says that Villanova has only a 0.27 percent chance to win the National Championship. Hey, that's only 369.37-to-1. For comparison, Kansas's odds, according to the Log5, are 4.29-to-1. Florida's Log5 odds for a national title are significantly worse at 8.22-to-1.

In reality, I would put Villanova's odds at slightly better than 370-to-1. If the team gets rolling and can get to the Sweet 16, the draw is very favorable. Bodog is taking bets on 'Nova to win it all at 70-1, and perhaps double that would be the fair odds.