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01 March 2007

Will Reynolds go pro?

posted by Pete @ LetsGoNova.com
3/01/2007 05:06:00 PM

After Scottie's 40-point explosion in Storrs last night, the college basketball world is abuzz with Reynolds chatter. One of the most frequent discussions today is will Scottie go pro, and if so, when.

The folks over at BigEastHoops sure seem to think he is going pro, and sooner than later, to boot. One of their writers, Donald, says "so long, Scottie," estimating there is a 100 percent chance he leaves this year:

Mark my words: Scottie Reynolds is gone after this year. Corey Fisher, one of the top prep guards in the country is going to Villanova next year, so he’ll have the share the ball (and limelight) with him next year. As it is, Reynolds doesn’t stand much to gain from staying next year. He’s shown improvements each month of the season, culminating in his 40 point performance last night in a win over UConn. He’s a bit undersized to play in the NBA (kind of like Khalid El-Amin), and that’s not going to change next year. He would be smart to leave.

Willie, another one of their pundits, sets the over/under for Scottie leaving at two years. Willie later says there is a 0 percent chance Scottie stays for his junior year, which makes his over/under a bit skewed. Well, good thing he's a basketball writer and not a bookmaker.

So what's my take on this issue? I believe Reynolds will go pro, and I believe he will leave early. I don't think it will happen this year, though, due to the fact that this year's draft class is over-stuffed with talent.

Here is my best guess on the probabilities. Note that I think Reynolds has a 95 percent chance to go pro overall.

After year:Chance Reynolds will have gone pro:
Freshman 15%
Sophomore 55%
Junior 80%
Senior 95%

At this point, the team needs to concentrate on its NCAA Tournament run. But it's always nice to have a player be a part of the national discussion. Here's hoping Scottie helps bring home an NCAA title during his 'Nova career, no matter what the year.

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