Numbers prove Grant best of four freshmen

I know this post will bring out the "enough with Malcolm Grant" haters, but it's summer, news is slow, and Greycat of Villanova by the Numbers just posted his analysis of the four Wildcat freshmen and their progression throughout last season.

The numbers show what we've known around here all year: Malcolm Grant was the best performer of his much-touted freshman class, and it wasn't even close.

Greycat's chart shows the Pomeroy offensive efficiency rating for each of the four Villanova freshmen for each game of the season. The numbers do not take defense into account, but before you justify Grant's latter-season disappearance on defense, remember that Grant was at least as good a defender as Corey Fisher, and that is being quite generous to Fisher.

Grant showed a consistent level of offensive performance once conference play kicked in, maintaining a large separation above the other three freshmen. Corey Stokes improved his game greatly, while Fisher and Pena seemed to decline offensively as the season wore on.

We may never know the true story behind Grant's fall from grace, so I can't beat up Jay Wright about it more than I already have all season, but Greycat's chart serves as a stark reminder of how good Grant was, how much the team will miss him, and what a waste it was that Coach Wright could not keep him in a Wildcat uniform, for whatever reason.

Grant is on his way to Miami, and the Hurricanes will be Let's Go Nova's second-favorite college team in 2009-2010.

As for the three remaining freshmen, now rising sophomores, Corey Stokes is clearly a bright spot. If he continues his offensive development at the pace he improved last season, he could be a star in the Big East. Fisher and Pena need to work on being more consistent offensively, but we didn't need the chart to tell us that.

Keep on eye on the three sophomores and their offensive development in 2008-2009. And look for Malcolm Grant to crack the all-ACC squad the year after that.

Feature: Grading freshman effectiveness

(Editor's note: First-time LetsGoNova.com contributor "Foye's Boy" penned this piece about freshman efficacy between the DePaul and Pittsburgh games.)

After a tough loss to DePaul on Thursday night, I found it important to offer my insight on the effectiveness of our freshman players, with respect to how many minutes they are being played. Let's first take a look at some of the stats of '07-'08 season to date (Not including Pitt game):

I will offer my personal effectiveness ratings for these five players, 10 being extremely effective and 1 having no effect at all.

"READ MORE" below for the freshman effectiveness blurbs.

Corey Fisher - Guard

Effectiveness: 9

MPG: 25

Corey Fisher, whom Jay Wright has dubbed as being the most "surprising" member in his freshman class, has really begun to show his potential stardom. Now a starter, he is the 'Cats' second-leading scorer, averaging about 13 points per game, including a solid 23 points in a losing effort against DePaul. He has the ability to create his own shot, often toying with defenders, and also has the ability to finish drives to the basket and shots from behind the arc (40 percent). More important, he takes away the ball-handling responsibilities from Scottie Reynolds, which should leave Reynolds with more opportunities to score. He has been making some careless passes and turnovers, but let's not forget that "Fisher Price" is still only a freshman. The potential is definitely there, and I look for Fisher to continue to produce and be very effective for the Wildcats, especially in the upcoming conference games. He gets a 9 for effectiveness because he is the star in this freshman class.

Corey Stokes - Guard

Effectiveness: 3

MPG: 14.8

Stokes, the high school McDonald's All-American guard, has yet to show his abilities that made him so highly touted coming into this year. Stokes has seemed to not be able to find his stroke from three (only 19 percent), despite being third on the team in 3-point attempts. (Only Reynolds and Fisher have more.) He lacks confidence, both offensively and defensively, and thus has not really been a threat to opponents. It seems that he is trying too hard to be perfect, and thus has been frequently out of position on defense. He also seems to be forcing untimely shots. Quite frankly, he has been disappointing so far, but the season is still very young and I believe (and certainly hope) that he can turn around.

Malcolm Grant - Guard

Effectiveness: 8

MPG: 15.5

Grant, the least-heralded of the freshman guards coming into this season, has been a pleasant surprise this year for Jay Wright. He provides an unbelievable amount of energy coming off the bench, and I believe he is the most defensively sound guard on the team. Grant has a tremendous stroke from the arc (18-31; 58 percent), can get it done at the line (80 percent), and rarely makes bad decisions. As we all know, he single-handedly was responsible for the amazing comeback against the LSU Tigers, when Grant scored 13 points in the last 3 minutes. I believe Wright needs to give Grant more minutes because he really can change the entire tempo of the game. I thought Grant should have played more late in the DePaul game to help spark a comeback like the LSU game, but he only played 12 minutes. He is quite effective when he comes off the bench, and needs to see more playing time.

Antonio Pena - Forward

Effectiveness: 6

MPG: 12.3

Pena, a red-shirt freshman, has helped to the fill the void left for a rebounding big man, since the sophomore center Casiem Drummond got hurt. Pena is a very athletic and strong forward, and has begun to gain confidence in Wright's system. He provides valuable minutes off the bench, especially when Dante and Shane are in need of a rest, or are in foul trouble. He needs to work on getting better defensively and avoiding cheap fouls, but I like what I see out of him offensively. He seems to lack a mid-to-long-range game, but he is able to get open down low, and can usually finish. He has been a great asset to this basketball team coming off the bench.

Andrew Ott - Forward

Effectiveness: 1

MPG: 4.3

Ott, who also red shirted last year, has only played in three games, and probably will not see many minutes due to the tough upcoming conference games. He is just not there offensively or defensively, and quite frankly lacks confidence. In my opinion, he is at least one to two years away from being a producer on this team. Therefore, I cannot say that he is effective at all, other than offering support and depth from the sidelines.

NOTE - This article was written before the Pitt game and does not include stats or minutes from that game. However, the Pitt game only furthered my feeling that Grant needs as many minutes as possible (he was remarkable), and that Fisher and Pena are tremendous assets to this team. The Pitt win was a perfect example of how effective this freshmen class has been, and hopefully will continue to be.

Feel free to offer comments, criticisms, and your own opinions, as this is my first post. Let me know what you guys think of the 'Nova class of 2011.

'Cats open season tonight in Canadian tour

Villanova basketball officially kicks off tonight in Ottawa, of all places, at Carleton University.

The Wildcats will take on the host Carleton Ravens tonight at 7 p.m. in an exhibition game.

Yes, I had to look up Carleton's mascot on Wikipedia.

Tonight's game is the first of four exhibitions scheduled this weekend for Villanova. The 'Cats will face Queen's University (Ontario) tomorrow at noon in Carleton's gym, before heading across town that same day to play the University of Ottawa on its home court at 7 p.m Sunday.

The Canadian tour concludes Monday at noon back at Carleton, where Villanova will be matched up with a ragtag all-star team of the best players alumni from Carleton and the University of Ottawa.

The Canadian exhibitions also mark the debuts of Corey Fisher, Corey Stokes, and Malcolm Grant, the three highly touted freshman guards.

The Philadelphia Daily News runs a nice feature on the two Coreys, and Villanova released a press piece about Malcolm Grant.

Tonight's game will also be the first look at redshirt freshman forward Antonio Pena.

Far be it from me to make predictions, but Villanova should win all four games without breaking a sweat. There is simply no way any collegiate team north of the border will be able to handle Villanova's backcourt, which should be one of the best in the United States this season.

One of the things to look for in the four exhibitions is the backcourt interaction between the three freshmen and returning sophomore Scottie Reynolds, who is unquestionably the team's best scorer. Reynolds should move over to the two guard this year after handling point duties last season.

A video feed for the games is not available, which is a shame for a school with as large a basketball following as Villanova. It does not look like there will be audio for the games, either.

Box scores should be posted on the Villanova Web site at some point after the games. As always, check back here for more information as it becomes available.