'Nova likely dancing as bubble teams collapse

Aside from Villanova's loss today to Georgetown, it was nearly a perfect day for the Wildcats' at-large hopes. While Villanova beat a good Syracuse team and then lost to the top-ten Georgetown Hoyas, most of its competition on the bubble lost in games they could not afford to lose against inferior competition.

I now peg Villanova's chances to receive an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament at 85 percent. That may change up or down based on results tomorrow. Read on for a team-by-team breakdown that explains why Villanova will most likely be invited to the Big Dance on Sunday.

According to Wednesday morning's ESPN Bubble Watch, here was the situation going into today:

Tier A (in relatively good shape today): Arizona, Kentucky, UMass, Texas A&M, Arkansas
Tier B (right on the cut line): Dayton, Illinois State, Ole Miss, UAB, Ohio State, Villanova, Oregon, Arizona State, New Mexico, Saint Joseph's, VCU
Tier C (long shots): Virginia Tech, Temple, Florida, Houston, Maryland

According to ESPN's Glockner, there are eight at-large spots for those 22 teams.

Here are the results for the teams listed as ahead of Villanova:

• Kentucky: Did not play. A win tomorrow versus Georgia almost certainly puts them into the Dance. A loss to Georgia puts them about equal to Villanova, in my opinion.
  


• Arizona: Arizona falls to #11 Stanford. Arizona now slips into equal footing with Villanova, but Arizona is likely still ahead of its in-state rival ASU, which lost to USC. Arizona might still get into the Dance even with the loss, because the bubble fell apart nationwide today. In any case, Arizona is no longer ahead of Villanova.
  


• UMass: Lost to a terrible Charlotte team in a must-win A10 conference tournament game. The loss places them squarely behind the Wildcats at this point.


• Texas A&M: Plays Kansas State tomorrow in its first meaningful Big 12 game. Avoided total disaster by beating Iowa State today. Depending on to whom you listen, the Aggies are either slightly ahead of Villanova or equal to the Wildcats.


• Arkansas: Plays Vanderbilt tomorrow. With a win the Razorbacks are likely in, but with a loss to the Commodores, they move to about the same level as Villanova.

Here are the results for the teams listed as roughly equal to Villanova:

• Dayton: Lost to Xavier in a game many said they had to have. Dayton's resume is pretty similar to Villanova's, except Dayton is playing in the horrible A10 and Villanova is in the Big East, which will place seven or eight teams in the Dance. The loss puts Dayton behind the 'Cats.

• Illinois State: Did not play today. Last game was a 30-point shellacking by Drake. Illinois State will most likely not make the tournament as teams pass it.

• Ole Miss: Lost a disastrous game to a horrendous Georgia team, a game Mississippi absolutely had to win. Ole Miss's game against Georgia was in the first round of the SEC tournament. Ole Miss lost in the first round to a terrible Georgia team, while 'Nova won in its first round against a good Syracuse team, and lost to a top-ten Hoya squad. Villanova moves ahead of Ole Miss.

• UAB: Lost today to Tulsa. Goodbye, UAB.
  

• OSU: Did not play today. Faces a crucial game against MSU tomorrow, a game roughly the equivalent of Nova's game against Georgetown.

• Oregon: Lost to Washington State in the first round of the Pac-10 tournament. With the 0-1 conference tournament performance, and the loss in a game it simply had to get, the Ducks move to the back of the line.

• Arizona State: Lost today to unranked USC in the first round of the Pac-10. It was a must-win for ASU. The Sun Devils and their 0-1 conference tournament record have to move behind both Wildcats, Villanova and Arizona.

• New Mexico: Lost a must-win game to Utah in the horrendous Mountain West. New Mexico now falls way behind the 'Cats and will likely find itself in the NIT.
  

• St. Joseph's: Beat Richmond today to face Xavier tomorrow. With a loss to X, the Hawks fall behind the Wildcats. With a win over Xavier, the Hawks move ahead of Villanova. Even if they pull off the upset, there might still be room in the Dance for both the Big 5 teams, what with the bubble carnage today.
  

• VCU: Season ended Monday with a loss to William and Mary. VCU has been sweating it out all week. While the bubble carnage favors the Rams, Villanova's win over Syracuse vaulted the Wildcats ahead, in my opinion.

Here are the results for the teams listed as behind Villanova, who needed to do something major to pass the 'Cats:

• VT: Plays Miami tomorrow in the ACC tournament.

• Temple: Plays Charlotte tomorrow after beating La Salle today. Conventional wisdom says the only way in for Temple is the auto-bid, but a loss tomorrow to Charlotte would make sure they don't jump ahead of 'Nova with a close loss to X in the final.

• Florida: Lost today to Alabama. Welcome to the NIT, Billy Donovan.

• Houston: Lost today to an atrocious UTEP team. Houston is done. Wildcat fans should root for Memphis to demolish the remaining riff raff in Conference USA and make it a one-bid league.

• Maryland: Lost today to BC. Maryland is now done and NIT-bound.

• FSU: Beat Wake, but the Seminoles need more than that. If they can get past UNC tomorrow, then they move on par or even past Villanova. But that is a tall order, and FSU will just as likely be crushed by the Tarheels.

Adding all this up means things are very favorable for Villanova:

• Bubble spots: 8
• Teams now ahead of Villanova: 3 -- Arkansas, Texas A&M, and Kentucky. And All three teams need to win tomorrow to stay above the 'Cats.
• Teams now roughly equal to Villanova: 5 -- Arizona, Illinois State, St. Joseph's, VCU, and Ohio State. Only St. Joe's and OSU are still playing, and both need to win tomorrow to get above the 'Cats. With a loss, each team moves below Villanova.
  
• Teams behind Villanova: 13 -- FSU, Temple, and Virginia Tech are the only teams left in this group that could possibly move ahead of Villanova, and the odds are stacked against them.
• Teams that need to win their conference tournaments to keep 8 bubble spots: 3 -- Kent St., BYU (or UNLV), and Memphis. Villanova and all bubblers are rooting for these three teams to win the automatic bids. This also assumes that all six power conferences will be won by tourney-bound squads, which is a safe bet looking at the remaining teams.

The math says it all. Of the 22 teams that were on the bubble this morning, only 3 are ahead of Villanova, and 5 are in roughly the same tier. All three teams ahead of the 'Cats need to win tomorrow to stay there, and 2 of the 5 teams in the same group as Villanova need wins tomorrow. Only 3 teams are alive below the 'Cats, and each of those teams needs a miracle to get to the Dance.

Things are looking extremely favorable for Villanova, and I now estimate Villanova's chances to receive an at-large bid on Sunday to be at about 85 percent right now, and pending crucial game results tomorrow.

Add in the two crucial calls in the NC State and Georgetown games, which the committee explicitly has said it will consider, and the fact that Reynolds was injured for some of the loss to Georgetown today but will be fine for the tournament, and Villanova's chances are actually more like 90 percent, pending results tomorrow.

Here are the teams Villanova is rooting for tomorrow: UNC, Miami, MSU, Xavier, Charlotte, Vanderbilt, Kansas St., Memphis, Kent St., BYU. By far the most important of these are Xavier and MSU.

Check back tomorrow night for bubble updates. Despite the loss to Georgetown, today was a fantastic day for the Wildcats' NCAA chances.