Live blog for Providence tonight

#11 Villanova (24-6) vs. Providence (18-11)
7 p.m., 5 March 2009 at the Pavilion.

TV: ESPN2

Line: Villanova -10.5

Join Let's Go Nova tonight at 7 p.m. for a special regular-season finale LIVE BLOG.

Fire up your fake usernames and outlandish comments, Let's Go Nova nation, as it is time once again for a very special live weblog tonight. We begin at 7 p.m., so don't forget to get here early with your comments, questions, opinions, and pleas for me to permanently stop blogging, forever.

Villanova closes out its regular season with a Pavilion game against the Providence Friars.

Providence might be the quintessential NCAA tournament bubble team. It's got a decent resume, but it's probably not in the field of 65 yet. The Friars might need to do a bit more work to really feel comfortable on selection night, and they still have the Big East tournament after tonight to do it.

The Friars, thus, could lose tonight and still dance, so they might not be as desperate as the Wildcats' last opponent, Notre Dame. But many bracketologists think Providence could lock up a spot with a premium win at Villanova tonight.

The game is equally important for Villanova, which now controls its own destiny for the coveted double-bye in the Big East tournament. With a victory tonight, the Wildcats earn themselves an extra day off next week and an automatic seed into the conference quarterfinals in New York.

VIllanova also has more important NCAA seeding issues to consider. The Wildcats must stay on the #3 seed line in order to get a good chance at playing in Philadelphia on the first weekend. With a win tonight and a 1-1 performance in the conference tournament, Villanova should hold up on the #3-line.

One month ago, Villanova won a close decision at Providence, 94-91.

For tonight, KenPom predicts a 14-point Villanova margin, with an 87 percent chance of victory.

Take a look at the other five 'Nova blogs linked at right for their previews, and then come back into our comment section to predict the final score of the last regular season.

See you at 7.

Villanova handles Notre Dame

Villanova 77
Notre Dame 60
(box score)

#11 Villanova: 24-6 (12-5 BE)
Notre Dame: 16-13 (7-10 BE)


Villanova broke away in the second half on Monday night to soundly put away a Notre Dame team fighting for its post-season life.

The Wildcats used an offense firing on all cylinders to scorch the Irish for 45 second-period points on the way to an easy win, despite a score knotted at 32 at the half.

I actually agreed with Jay Wright's rotation for much of the game. It was good to see Fisher and Reynolds out there together for good stretches, and I like how the team clicked offensively with two Coreys and Reynolds as threats. The only real problem I had tonight was Wright's continued under-utlization of Stokes, who could be a major weapon if he played more than one-third of the game.

All in all, though, it was a well coached game by Wright, who seems to have rebounded from his disaster against Georgetown last Saturday. Let's hope he can keep it up against tougher competition in the post-season.

With the win, Villanova keeps its chances of a double bye in the Big East tournament alive. The Wildcats now need to beat Providence and have Marquette lose to Pittsburgh to earn the #4 seed and the two days off that go with it.

More important, Villanova kept itself in a plausible position to receive a #3 seed in the NCAA tournament, which would likely place the Wildcats in Philadelphia for the first weekend, a tremendous advantage.

Looking at the current state of the top-15, it looks like Villanova will have to defeat Providence on Thursday and then win at least one game in Madison Square Garden to stay in the 3-seed conversation.

Notre Dame, on the other hand, all but sealed its fate in the NIT on Monday, barring a McNamarian run in the Big East Tournament.

The Irish find themselves behind 10 teams in the conference with better resumes: Connecticut, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Marquette, Villanova, West Virginia, Syracuse, Georgetown, Providence, and Cincinnati. All but the last three of these teams should be in the field at this point.

Although the argument could be made that all of remaining three serious Big East bubble teams deserve to get into the NCAA tournament, my guess is that just two will make it, and I give the advantage to Georgetown and Providence, pending each team's final few games.

Congratulations to an anonymous reader for most closely predicting the game's final score.

On to the player grades. "READ MORE" below for player performance grades and analysis.

• Scottie Reynolds (S, 39 min)

  Before the game, I was telling one of my friends that Scottie Reynolds should shoot more threes, because that is how he heats up on his epic scoring efforts. Looks like Reynolds got the memo on that one. Reynolds scorched the nets at the Joyce Center, scoring 23 pints on excellent 8-12 shooting, including a fantastic 6-7 from the three. And it's good to see him playing 39 of 40 minutes with no major signs of fatigue. It didn't hurt that Corey Fisher was around for 20 minutes to handle point duties for Reynolds, either. I would like to see Reynolds play the two-guard for 30+ minutes in Villanova's post-season. Reynolds finished the game with good numbers across the board: 6 rebounds, 5 assists, 2 steals, and 1 turnover. It was one of the best overall performances by a Villanova guard I have ever seen. Complete, mistake-free, excellent all around.
  Grade: A




• Reggie Redding (S, 38 min)

  Redding played well against Notre Dame, but was it 38-minutes well? I guess it worked out. He was quietly efficient on the offense, shooting 3-5, including 1-1 for three, to score 7 points. Redding added 4 boards, 3 assists, 2 steals, 1 block, and 2 turnovers to his well-rounded effort. He looked good on the defensive end after giving up some key plays against Georgetown.
  Grade: B




• Dante Cunningham (S, 35 min)

  Cunningham shot 8-18 tonight, which is not a bad night for a shooting guard, but should be embarrassing for a power-forward. I don't know why the conventional wisdom seems to be that Cunningham's work in the offseason paid off in the form of a new, ultra-reliable jump-shot, because to me it looks like the same old shot. Except that this year, Cunningham takes a lot more of them. I lost count of how many jumpers he missed during the game: thankfully the play-by-play in the box score remembers. Cunningham was 6-16 on jump-shots. Let that number stew around in your head for a while, and remember you are considering a once-efficient power forward, and not John Starks in the NBA Finals. Cunningham was 8-18 overall, so that means he was 2-2 on non-jump shots. Now, the official box score has a very loose definition of a jumper, so it categorizes some paint shots as jump-shots, but I can assure you that Cunningham made more from the inside and missed more from the outside. Can you imagine how much better it would have been for Villanova if Cunningham didn't miss 10 jumpers? Having Cunningham shoot low-percentage shots from outside the key is a double whammy for the 'Cats: not only are they bad shots, but it leaves Cunningham, the team's best rebounder, out of place for any chance at a carom. Wouldn't you rather 10 more shots for Stokes from the outside, with Cunningham underneath for the rebound, instead? I would, too. Against the Irish, Cunningham finished with 8 rebounds. He added 1 turnover, and 0 blocks, assists, or steals.
  Grade: B-




• Dwayne Anderson (S, 24 min)

  Anderson just could not find his shot. As the ultimate streak shooter, he has got to recognize when he is on and when he is not. Against the Irish, he was most certainly off. The nadir of Anderson's night was a missed wide-open 2-pt jumper from the baseline that was a complete air-ball. Things were going so well for Villanova, though, that a few seconds later, after an offensive rebound, Anderson was dunking it in anyway. But shooting 2-9, including 0-4 from the three, could hurt the team, especially when most of those shots weren't even close. Anderson played well otherwise, notching 6 boards, 2 assists, 3 steals, 1 block, and 1 turnover. Playing 24 minutes seems about right for Anderson, too. Just stop missing so many shots!
  Grade: C+




• Corey Fisher (20 min)

  Sure, Fisher was 0-5 from the field, but the shots he took were good, high-percentage shots. A player can only be judged on his decisions, and not his results. Fisher also passed the ball very well, dishing 3 assists in half a game, and he would have had more had some of his pass-recipients finished easy looks. He also had 1 block, 1 steal, and zero turnovers. So what if he scored just 2 points? Fisher played well. He was plagued by foul trouble against Notre Dame, which is why he played just 20 minutes. I am convinced he would have seen another 10 minutes despite his cold shooting if fouls were not an issue.
  Grade: B-
  
  

• Shane Clark (S, 18 min)

  Clark turned it on in the second half, playing his trademark cleanup game of put-backs and efficient shots. And thank goodness. This is Clark's bread-and-butter, and let's hope he can keep it up. He sat in the first half with two quick fouls, and honestly, the offense looked pretty good without him. But there is no denying the value he brought in the second half with his hustle game, and there is always a place for that on the court. Clark shot a good 5-7 from the field, but only managed 1 rebound in 18 minutes. He had 0 assists, turnovers, steals, or blocks, and was 2-3 from the foul line. One thing Jay Wright needs to be careful of is leaving Clark, who misses nearly half his free throws, on the court at the end of close games where fouling becomes a factor.
  Grade: B
  
  

• Corey Stokes (13 min)

  Ugh, why only 13 minutes for Stokes, who is by far the team's best shooter. Did you know that Stokes is shooting 44 percent from the three? That's too high a percentage! That means he needs to take more threes! I really don't know why Stokes was only allotted 13 minutes tonight; it just seems Wright keeps him on a very short leash, often yanking him out of the game after a few possessions. What I do know is that to beat teams that will put up more resistance than a fading Notre Dame, Villanova will need another scoring thread to complement Reynolds, Fisher, and Cunningham. Stokes is definitely that guy. He was pretty quiet against the Irish, scoring just 3 points on one really nice shot. During a possession at the end of the first half, Stokes freed himself to rotate to the top of the key, caught the ball in stride, and drained a gorgeous shot. I wish he would launch a few more of those in increased minutes.
  Grade: B-
  
  

• Antonio Pena (13 min)

  During the game broadcast, announcer Jay Bilas echoed a joke from this space a few games ago about Pena on a milk carton. Well, it looks like Pena is back, albeit in a slightly diminished role. Pena shot a decent 2-4 from the field and 2-2 from the foul line for 6 total points. He had 3 boards, and no assists, turnovers, steals, or blocks.
  Grade: B-





• Incomplete grades: Frank Tchuisi (0+ min), Jason Colenda (0+ min).



• Did not play: Russell Wooten (CD), Maurice Sutton (RS).

Villanova visits desperate Notre Dame

#11 Villanova (23-6) at Notre Dame (16-12)
7:00 p.m., 2 March 2009 at the Joyce Center.

TV: ESPN

Line: Notre Dame -3.5


The Wildcats travel to South Bend, Indiana today to play a very desperate Notre Dame team whose NCAA tournament chances are teetering on the brink of the abyss.

Villanova, once among the hottest teams in the nation, opens the week in a bit of a slump, after losing two of its last five games and surviving close calls with cellar-dwellers DePaul and Rutgers.

Notre Dame will be fired up, and the Irish will come ready to play. Hopefully, Villanova will also feel the urgency after losing at home to Georgetown on Saturday.

The Irish, who lost to Connecticut on Saturday, have good wins over Texas, Louisville, Providence, and Georgetown. Conventional wisdom says Notre Dame must win its final two regular season games, against Villanova and St. John's, to finish 9-9 in conference and have a decent chance at an at-large NCAA bid.

Needless to say, this is the biggest game of the season for Notre Dame, because if the Irish are able to beat Villanova, it not only enables them to finish .500 in the Big East, it also puts one more premium win under their belt for consideration in a very tight NCAA bubble.

KenPom predicts a two-point Irish win, with a 43 percent chance of victory for Villanova.

Check out the previews on the other 'Nova blogs (linked in the right sidebar), and then predict the game's final score in the comments below.

Villanova faces slumping G'town

#10 Villanova (23-5) vs. Georgetown (14-12)
12:00 p.m., 28 February 2009 at the Wachovia Center.

TV: ESPN

Line: Villanova -5.5

Villanova faces what may be its most unusual opponent of the season Saturday afternoon with a game against the mysterious Georgetown Hoyas.

Georgetown comes into Philadelphia having dropped nine of its last 11 games, but none of these have been terrible losses. The Hoyas boast wins over two likely #1 seeds, with victories over UConn and Memphis, and a solid win over NCAA-bound Syracuse.

Georgetown has also beaten two NCAA bubble teams, Providence, and Maryland.

Despite all the good wins, Georgetown is not even in bubble consideration for the NCAA tournament, thanks to its recent losing ways. Georgetown has won just two of its last 11 games, beating Big East doormats Rutgers and South Florida.

None of the losses were that bad individually, but when taken in context of one another, they probably will spell N-I-T unless the Hoyas can make a ridiculous run in the Big East tournament, a la Syracuse in 2006.

KenPom predicts a four-point Villanova win, with a 68 percent chance of victory.

Check out the previews on the other 'Nova blogs (linked in the right sidebar), and then predict the game's final score in the comments below.

'Nova in as #12 vs. #5 Clemson

Villanova grabbed one of the last at-large invitations to the NCAA tournament, the #12 seed in the Midwest.

Villanova draws #5 Clemson for a Friday game in Tampa, Fla. The winner of that game will likely face #4 Vanderbilt on Sunday.

Times have yet to be announced.

You can view the full bracket at CBS Sportsline.

Selection show live blog

Here is the selection show live blog.

How to watch the selection show

[Join LetsGoNova.com for a live blog of the selection show at 6 p.m. today.]

Selection Sunday revolves around the selection show, which starts at 6 p.m. (Villanova time) on CBS.

The nature of the selection show is that the brackets get revealed slowly, agonizingly, region-by-region, in between breathless commentary and lucrative commercial breaks.

As such, teams on the very edge of the bubble, like, say, Villanova, will want to know whether things are going their way even before they see their names listed.

Here is a brief guide to the selection show.

1. Bubble teams it's OK to see in the brackets: These teams already should be in.

• Texas A&M
• Kansas State
• Baylor
• St. Joseph's
• South Alabama
• Miami

2. Legitimate bubble competition: The best five profiles left, with four three to five spots available, depending on Wisconsin-Illinois and Arkansas-Georgia.

• Arizona
• Kentucky
• Villanova
• Oregon
• Illinois State

3. Names Villanova fans do NOT want to see under any circumstances: If you see one of these teams, you know one of the legitimate bubble teams got left out.

• Georgia (auto-bid)
• Illinois (out)
• Arizona State
• VCU
• Dayton
• UMass
• Virginia Tech
• Ohio State
• Mississippi
• Syracuse
  

All down to Selection Sunday

[Join LetsGoNova.com for a special live blog shortly before the selection show at 6 p.m.]

It wasn't a perfect day Saturday for Villanova's bubble hopes, but it was good enough that the Wildcats are still in fine shape to receive an at-large bid tonight.

The good news: Kent State and Memphis won, preserving two crucial at-large bids. UNC defeated the late-surging Virginia Tech, which has beaten absolutely no one this year and will find itself in the NIT.

The bad news: Temple knocked off St. Joe's, taking the A10 championship and an available bid. Georgia won two games in one day, and the Bulldogs will threaten to steal a bid tomorrow afternoon.

There are just two games left that will affect Villanova's chances:

• Arkansas vs. Georgia (3:30 p.m., ESPN2)
• Wisconsin vs. Illinois (3:30 p.m., CBS)
  

I would feel great going into the selection show tonight if both Arkansas and Wisconsin won; in that scenario, the Wildcats would very likely get into the field. I would even be comfortable if just one of those two teams won, because the numbers still work out for Villanova to be invited.

If both Arkansas and Wisconsin lose, the bubble shrinks from three at-large spots to just one (assuming Arizona and Kentucky are already in), and then Villanova fans will really be sweating it out.

It would still be possible for 'Nova to get the last at-large bid with upsets in the Big Ten and the SEC, especially if the committee snubs Arizona or Kentucky, but it would be a lot safer for all three Wildcat teams if the Badgers and Razorbacks can get the job done.

Join LetsGoNova.com for a special live blog shortly before the selection show at 6 p.m. Be sure to participate and let your feelings be known as the brackets are unveiled this evening.

Following the bubble Saturday

Well, Villanova looks to be in barring total disaster.

Here are the outcomes to root for today, in chronological order. The most important games are listed in bold.

• Memphis over Tulsa
• Kentucky over Georgia
• UNC over Virginia Tech
• Illinois over Minnesota
• St. Joseph's over Temple
• Kent. St. over Akron
• Pittsburgh over Georgetown
• Mississippi St. over Georgia
  

Note: Last night, the desired outcome of the Kentucky-Georgia game was for Georgia to win. That has all changed now. The name of the game is to keep as many at-large spots open as possible. Kentucky is now pretty much an at-large lock, and Kentucky was already ahead of Villanova. The Wildcats are now rooting for the Wildcats in the rescheduled game.

'Nova likely in barring total disaster

Here is what the Wildcats need to happen to virtually guarantee them a spot:

• UNC to beat VT (Saturday). Tech might be in with a win over UNC, so that would take one spot away from the bubble. Granted, it might take UMass's or Illinois State's spot, but right now it's too close for comfort.
• St. Joe's to beat Temple (Saturday). Temple can't really get in without the auto-bid, while St. Joe's is now a lock.
• Memphis to beat Tulsa (Saturday). A Memphis loss would reduce the number of bubble spots by one.
• Kent St. to beat Akron (Saturday). A Kent St. loss would give the Flashes an at-large.
  
• Georgia to not win three times in 30 hours. The Bulldogs are the only team left in the SEC that is not a lock. Due to a tornado hitting the Georgia Dome last night, the only path for Georgia to an automatic bid is through Kentucky, Mississippi State, and the winner of Tennessee/Arkansas, all in the next day or so.
• Wisconsin or Michigan State to win the Big 10 (Sunday). This is one Villanova fans might have to really sweat out. If Temple upsets St. Joe's and VT knocks off UNC, Villanova's spot could well come down to the Big 10 championship Sunday afternoon. Michigan State or Wisconsin will face Illinois or Minnesota in the final, ending just minutes before the selection show.
  

The only way I see Villanova being left out, at this point, is if three or more of the above scenarios go wrong this weekend. Even if three of these points do not go the Wildcats' way, there still should be about a 50-50 chance for the 'Cats to get in.

Remember, there are four at-large spots left, assuming Arizona is now in, even after losing. If there are still four or three spots left Sunday night, Villanova is a virtual lock. If there are just one or two spots left, Villanova will have to sweat it out. If all of the above scenarios go absolutely haywire, including Georgia pulling off one of the greatest weekends in sports history, then tip your hat to them, because the 'Cats will likely be one of the last two teams out.

I now estimate the Wildcats' chances of being included at 85 percent.

Finally, one of the last holdouts has put Villanova in his field of 65: ESPN's Bubble Watcher Andy Glockner.

Glockner held off after "Carnage Thursday" to make sure the bubble did not collapse on Friday. It didn't. According to Glockner,

It still looks like Arizona will make it off the strength of its 10 Top 100 wins. That leaves four spots up for grabs and the tiers as follows (in RPI order):

Tier A: Dayton, Illinois State, UMass, Villanova, Oregon, Arizona State Tier B: Ohio State, Ole Miss, Syracuse, VCU, New Mexico, Virginia Tech, Temple

Forced to choose today, the final four spots would go to Villanova, Illinois State, Oregon and UMass.

He even gives Villanova some breathing room, because Glockner suggests a Temple win over St. Joe's might take UMass's spot.

As Glockner says, if the selection show were right now, Villanova would be in.

Friday bubble roundup

As of 11:45 p.m. Friday with all but two of the key games over, 'Nova looks like it's still in good shape. St. Joe's is now a lock, but there is still plenty of space on the bubble as we got a lot of help today.

Teams to root for tomorrow include St. Joe's, Memphis, Kent St., UNC, and BYU. No matter what, we will be sweating out the B10 final on Sunday, because either Minnesota or Illinois will be threatening to steal an auto-bid from MSU or Wisconsin.

The Kentucky-Georgia game in the SEC was postponed due to severe weather damaging the Georgia Dome. One possible scenario has ONLY Kentucky-Georgia playing tomorrow, and then scheduling three games (final 2 rounds) on Sunday. Each of these games would have to be just 20 minutes long, with two ten-minute halves, to avoid potential injuries.

There is also confusion as to where to play the games. Will the Georgia Dome be ready by tomorrow? Is there anywhere else in Atlanta to host the games? The Atlanta Hawks' arena is booked solid.

No official word yet from the SEC.

Update: According to the SEC Web site, three games are scheduled for Saturday, with Kentucky-Georgia playing first, then the regularly scheduled game between Tennessee-Arkansas, then finally Mississippi St. against the winner of Kentucky-Georgia.

If the schedule on the SEC's site is indeed correct, it does not seem fair to make the winner of the Kentucky-Georgia game play a fresh Mississippi St. team, especially if Georgia wins and is going for the auto-bid.

Following the bubble today

Here is a list of games that could affect Villanova's bubble status today. All the games are listed in the preferred outcome for the Wildcats.

I still believe that Villanova will be selected on Sunday for the NCAA tournament.

Obviously, some of these games are orders of magnitude more important than others for Villanova's hopes, but I have listed them all for the sake of completeness. I have highlighted the most important of these games in bold.

The games are listed in chronological order.

• UNC over FSU
• Texas over OK St.
• Wisconsin over Michigan
• Tennessee over South Carolina
• Miami over VT
• MSU over OSU
• Oklahoma over Colorado
• Vanderbilt over Arkansas
• Memphis over Southern Miss.
• Purdue over Illinois
  
• Xavier over St. Joe's
• West Virginia over Georgetown
• Duke over Georgia Tech
  
• Kansas over Nebraska
• Charlotte over Temple
• Mississippi St. over Alabama
• Pittsburgh over Marquette
• Indiana over Minnesota
• Kansas St. over Texas A&M
• Clemson over BC
• BYU over SDSU
• Kent St. over Miami (Ohio)
• UNLV over Utah
• Georgia over Kentucky [postponed]
  

'Nova likely dancing as bubble teams collapse

Aside from Villanova's loss today to Georgetown, it was nearly a perfect day for the Wildcats' at-large hopes. While Villanova beat a good Syracuse team and then lost to the top-ten Georgetown Hoyas, most of its competition on the bubble lost in games they could not afford to lose against inferior competition.

I now peg Villanova's chances to receive an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament at 85 percent. That may change up or down based on results tomorrow. Read on for a team-by-team breakdown that explains why Villanova will most likely be invited to the Big Dance on Sunday.

According to Wednesday morning's ESPN Bubble Watch, here was the situation going into today:

Tier A (in relatively good shape today): Arizona, Kentucky, UMass, Texas A&M, Arkansas
Tier B (right on the cut line): Dayton, Illinois State, Ole Miss, UAB, Ohio State, Villanova, Oregon, Arizona State, New Mexico, Saint Joseph's, VCU
Tier C (long shots): Virginia Tech, Temple, Florida, Houston, Maryland

According to ESPN's Glockner, there are eight at-large spots for those 22 teams.

Here are the results for the teams listed as ahead of Villanova:

• Kentucky: Did not play. A win tomorrow versus Georgia almost certainly puts them into the Dance. A loss to Georgia puts them about equal to Villanova, in my opinion.
  


• Arizona: Arizona falls to #11 Stanford. Arizona now slips into equal footing with Villanova, but Arizona is likely still ahead of its in-state rival ASU, which lost to USC. Arizona might still get into the Dance even with the loss, because the bubble fell apart nationwide today. In any case, Arizona is no longer ahead of Villanova.
  


• UMass: Lost to a terrible Charlotte team in a must-win A10 conference tournament game. The loss places them squarely behind the Wildcats at this point.


• Texas A&M: Plays Kansas State tomorrow in its first meaningful Big 12 game. Avoided total disaster by beating Iowa State today. Depending on to whom you listen, the Aggies are either slightly ahead of Villanova or equal to the Wildcats.


• Arkansas: Plays Vanderbilt tomorrow. With a win the Razorbacks are likely in, but with a loss to the Commodores, they move to about the same level as Villanova.

Here are the results for the teams listed as roughly equal to Villanova:

• Dayton: Lost to Xavier in a game many said they had to have. Dayton's resume is pretty similar to Villanova's, except Dayton is playing in the horrible A10 and Villanova is in the Big East, which will place seven or eight teams in the Dance. The loss puts Dayton behind the 'Cats.

• Illinois State: Did not play today. Last game was a 30-point shellacking by Drake. Illinois State will most likely not make the tournament as teams pass it.

• Ole Miss: Lost a disastrous game to a horrendous Georgia team, a game Mississippi absolutely had to win. Ole Miss's game against Georgia was in the first round of the SEC tournament. Ole Miss lost in the first round to a terrible Georgia team, while 'Nova won in its first round against a good Syracuse team, and lost to a top-ten Hoya squad. Villanova moves ahead of Ole Miss.

• UAB: Lost today to Tulsa. Goodbye, UAB.
  

• OSU: Did not play today. Faces a crucial game against MSU tomorrow, a game roughly the equivalent of Nova's game against Georgetown.

• Oregon: Lost to Washington State in the first round of the Pac-10 tournament. With the 0-1 conference tournament performance, and the loss in a game it simply had to get, the Ducks move to the back of the line.

• Arizona State: Lost today to unranked USC in the first round of the Pac-10. It was a must-win for ASU. The Sun Devils and their 0-1 conference tournament record have to move behind both Wildcats, Villanova and Arizona.

• New Mexico: Lost a must-win game to Utah in the horrendous Mountain West. New Mexico now falls way behind the 'Cats and will likely find itself in the NIT.
  

• St. Joseph's: Beat Richmond today to face Xavier tomorrow. With a loss to X, the Hawks fall behind the Wildcats. With a win over Xavier, the Hawks move ahead of Villanova. Even if they pull off the upset, there might still be room in the Dance for both the Big 5 teams, what with the bubble carnage today.
  

• VCU: Season ended Monday with a loss to William and Mary. VCU has been sweating it out all week. While the bubble carnage favors the Rams, Villanova's win over Syracuse vaulted the Wildcats ahead, in my opinion.

Here are the results for the teams listed as behind Villanova, who needed to do something major to pass the 'Cats:

• VT: Plays Miami tomorrow in the ACC tournament.

• Temple: Plays Charlotte tomorrow after beating La Salle today. Conventional wisdom says the only way in for Temple is the auto-bid, but a loss tomorrow to Charlotte would make sure they don't jump ahead of 'Nova with a close loss to X in the final.

• Florida: Lost today to Alabama. Welcome to the NIT, Billy Donovan.

• Houston: Lost today to an atrocious UTEP team. Houston is done. Wildcat fans should root for Memphis to demolish the remaining riff raff in Conference USA and make it a one-bid league.

• Maryland: Lost today to BC. Maryland is now done and NIT-bound.

• FSU: Beat Wake, but the Seminoles need more than that. If they can get past UNC tomorrow, then they move on par or even past Villanova. But that is a tall order, and FSU will just as likely be crushed by the Tarheels.

Adding all this up means things are very favorable for Villanova:

• Bubble spots: 8
• Teams now ahead of Villanova: 3 -- Arkansas, Texas A&M, and Kentucky. And All three teams need to win tomorrow to stay above the 'Cats.
• Teams now roughly equal to Villanova: 5 -- Arizona, Illinois State, St. Joseph's, VCU, and Ohio State. Only St. Joe's and OSU are still playing, and both need to win tomorrow to get above the 'Cats. With a loss, each team moves below Villanova.
  
• Teams behind Villanova: 13 -- FSU, Temple, and Virginia Tech are the only teams left in this group that could possibly move ahead of Villanova, and the odds are stacked against them.
• Teams that need to win their conference tournaments to keep 8 bubble spots: 3 -- Kent St., BYU (or UNLV), and Memphis. Villanova and all bubblers are rooting for these three teams to win the automatic bids. This also assumes that all six power conferences will be won by tourney-bound squads, which is a safe bet looking at the remaining teams.

The math says it all. Of the 22 teams that were on the bubble this morning, only 3 are ahead of Villanova, and 5 are in roughly the same tier. All three teams ahead of the 'Cats need to win tomorrow to stay there, and 2 of the 5 teams in the same group as Villanova need wins tomorrow. Only 3 teams are alive below the 'Cats, and each of those teams needs a miracle to get to the Dance.

Things are looking extremely favorable for Villanova, and I now estimate Villanova's chances to receive an at-large bid on Sunday to be at about 85 percent right now, and pending crucial game results tomorrow.

Add in the two crucial calls in the NC State and Georgetown games, which the committee explicitly has said it will consider, and the fact that Reynolds was injured for some of the loss to Georgetown today but will be fine for the tournament, and Villanova's chances are actually more like 90 percent, pending results tomorrow.

Here are the teams Villanova is rooting for tomorrow: UNC, Miami, MSU, Xavier, Charlotte, Vanderbilt, Kansas St., Memphis, Kent St., BYU. By far the most important of these are Xavier and MSU.

Check back tomorrow night for bubble updates. Despite the loss to Georgetown, today was a fantastic day for the Wildcats' NCAA chances.

PLAY-IN GAME Winner of 'Nova-'Cuse likely in NCAAs

[UPDATE] Naysayers, take note. No less an authority than Jay Wright believes we are in a play-in game:

Now we're in an 8-9 game at noon and it's an awesome game. I think it's a play-in game for the NCAA Tournament.

Villanova got what it wanted after a crippling 5-game losing streak one month ago: the chance to play itself into the NCAA tournament.

Now squarely on the bubble, Villanova faces a win-and-in scenario, barring a string of conference-tournament upsets or smoke-filled-room committee conspiracies.


With regular-season conference play complete, the Big East Tournament is now set, and Villanova is the #8 seed in the 12-team elimination bracket.

The Wildcats will face the #9 seed Syracuse to open the tournament. With seven teams from the Big East all but certain to be included in the NCAA tournament, Syracuse and Villanova will battle for the likely final spot on Wednesday.


A win in the 8/9 game should be enough for either team to receive an NCAA invitation, but it is not guaranteed. If you are more comfortable calling Wednesday's game an elimination game instead, feel free, because the loser of that game will almost certainly be headed to the NIT.

The Wildcats and the Orange have similar resumes for an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament. If the season ended today, Syracuse would probably get the nod due to its better RPI and strength-of-schedule numbers.

Villanova has a chance to make all that moot on Wednesday if the Wildcats can secure the victory. The winner of the game will most likely gain an at-large bid to the NCAAs, while the loser will probably have played itself into the NIT.

It's all on the line on Wednesday.

The game, scheduled for noon at Madison Square Garden, will air live nationwide on ESPN.

If Villanova is able to get past Syracuse on Wednesday, it will get a rematch with the #1 Georgetown Hoyas at noon on Thursday. Villanova lost its game at Georgetown last month on what was widely believed to be one of the worst referee calls in college basketball history.

The entire Big East Tournament schedule is reprinted below from the Big East Web site.

You may also predict Wednesday's final score in the comments section.