How good is 'Nova's draw?

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We've had a few days to digest the NCAA tournament bracket, and we can start to draw some conclusions about Villanova's draw to Detroit.

At first, I was thrilled to find Villanova in the East regional -- not only for the excellent geography, but also because I consider Pittsburgh to be the weakest of the 1-seeds by far. There is no 1-seed I'd rather see Villanova play than Pittsburgh, especially since the Wildcats have already beaten the Panthers this year.

Similarly, I am happy Villanova has a potential Sweet 16 match-up with #2 Duke. The Blue Devils scare me a lot less than some of the other 2-seeds, especially Memphis.

But then I started to take a look at Villanova's earlier path to the Sweet 16 itself -- particularly, its mini-tournament in one of the two Philadelphia pods.

Of course, it is a tremendous advantage for Villanova to play its first two games in the Wachovia Center, its home court away from home. But are Villanova's podmates conducive to an easy trip to Boston for the Wildcats?

No way.

In the first round, Villanova draws a feisty American team. The Eagles return nearly everyone from last year, when they took 2-seed Tennessee to the brink of elimination in the first 35 minutes of the first round.

This year, American boasts an RPI in the 70s and actually received a vote in this week's AP top 25! Does that look like the profile of a lowly 14-seed?

Villanova, favored by 17, should win the game, of course. KenPom gives American just a 10 percent chance at the upset. If the Wildcats are able to hold on, they will not get a pushover in the second round.

Waiting for Villanova will be either #6 UCLA or #11 VCU.

First, let's start with VCU, in the event the Rams are able to pull off the upset.

VCU is ranked 55th this year by KenPom. The Rams also have excellent NCAA tournament experience from 2007, when they beat Duke in the first round and took Pitt to overtime in the second.

Senior guard Eric Maynor is back for one more tournament run before heading to the NBA. The Rams also have another future pro in big man Larry Sanders.

VCU is going to be a very tough out in this tournament.

But its opponent, #6 UCLA, looks even better.

Is UCLA the best-ever #6 seed in tournament history? Well, I can't think of one better. The Bruins have been to three consecutive Final Fours, and feature three seniors -- Darren Collison, Josh Shipp, and Alfred Aboya -- who have as much NCAA tournament experience as anyone in college basketball.

UCLA also has Jrue Holiday, one of the very best freshman guards in the country -- the Kemba Walker of the West.

The Bruins are ranked #17 in the nation by the coaches, and #18 by the writers. Those are significantly better rankings than the 21-24 range implied by the #6 seed.

Most frightening, however, is UCLA's KenPom rating: #9 in the country. For a 6-seed! Ahead of 3-seeds Mizzou (#10), Kansas (#11), and Villanova (#19). The Bruins are also ahead of 2-seeds MSU (#13) and Oklahoma (#17).

That means, according to KenPom, Villanova would be better off playing any of the other 3-seeds, two of the 2-seeds, all of the 4-seeds except Gonzaga, and all of the 5-seeds, than to play 6-seeded UCLA in the second round!

In fact, since UCLA is ranked a full 10 spots higher than Villanova, the Bruins would be significantly favored on a neutral court over the Wildcats. It's a good thing that the Wachovia Center will not be a neutral site for that game.

An obvious repudiation of this argument is the idea that the tournament is tough for everyone.

Well, not this tough. Look at the other 3-seeds this year and their paths to the sweet 16.

• Missouri: Cornell; Utah St./Marquette
  
• Kansas: ND State; Dayton/WVU
  
• Syracuse: SF Austin; Temple/ASU
  

There is not a team on that list I wouldn't rather play than UCLA.

All in all, if the Wildcats are lucky enough to get past American on Thursday, UCLA is a monster assignment. It's more like an elite-8 game than a second-round match-up.

VCU would not be a cake walk, either.

If not for the friendly confines of the Wachovia Center, I'd be even more worried. But with the home-court edge, I think Villanova gets to Boston -- barely.

Once the 'Cats are in Boston, it's the smoothest possible sailing to Detroit. I really like the team's chances vs. Duke or Pittsburgh (or Texas or FSU).

So what do you think? Vote in the poll below.

Did the selection committee give Villanova a bit more of a test, factoring in the pseudo-home-court advantage? Or did Villanova just get unlucky in its first-weekend draw?

Maybe you totally disagree with me, and love Villanova's draw to the Sweet 16.

Either way, let me know in the comments.

Villanova: 3-seed in Phila. v. American

Villanova will play American University at the Wachovia Center on Thursday, March 19.

Villanova, a 3-seed, faces the 14th-seeded American Eagles, champions of the Patriot League.

Game time is yet to be determined, but since UCLA is from the West Coast, the Bruins will most likely get the 9:30 p.m. slot, leaving Villanova-American to start at 7 p.m.

Villanova is in the East region (Boston), where Pitt is the #1 and Duke is the #2 seed (and potential Sweet 16 matchup).

UCLA is the 6-seed in Villanova's Philly pod as the potential second-round matchup. UCLA as a 6-seed is a very rough break for Villanova, as the Bruins might be one of the most dangerous 6-seeds ever, just one year removed from the Final Four.

KenPom ranks UCLA as the #9 team in the nation, while Villanova is #19. If both teams make it to the second round, KenPom will actually have UCLA favored to win, if you consider the Wachovia Center a neutral court. (Which it won't be.)

UCLA has one of the best resumes for a 6-seed I've ever seen. The Bruins are 14-6 in a good Pac-10, and have some great games out of conference. UCLA blew out Villanova common opponent Notre Dame by 26. They lost to Texas at Texas by fewer points than Villanova lost to Texas in a very pro-Villanova Madison Square Garden in New York.

The good news is that UCLA itself has a rough first-round matchup with Eric Maynor and VCU.

UCLA will be tough, but aside from that, you couldn't ask for much better for Villanova. Geographically, Villanova will own the crowd in Philadelphia and is very familiar with the Wachovia Center court.

If the Wildcats are able to win their Philly pod, it's off to to Boston and potential match-ups with Duke and Pitt in the Sweet 16 and Elite 8, respectively. You have figure that Villanova will have a large contingent of alumni in Boston.

As for matchups, Villanova has already beaten Pitt this season, and I like the way Villanova matches up with Duke as long as the Wildcats can figure out a way to stop Gerald Henderson.

But Villanova might face an extremely difficult test in round-2 vs. a seasoned UCLA team. This is where having the home crowd at the Wachovia Center, Villanova's home-away-from-home, is a huge advantage. Even so, go VCU!

Selection Sunday predictions

The official NCAA tournament brackets are just a few hours away, but there's still time to make some quick predictions.

First of all, I would be very surprised if Villanova is not a 3-seed in Philadelphia for the Thursday-Saturday games at the Wachovia Center. It's looking very likely the 'Cats will be sent to South Philadelphia to play a 14-seed on Thursday.

My wild guess for Villanova's first-round opponent? East Tennessee State.

Louisville, Pittsburgh, North Carolina, and Memphis look pretty solid as the one-seeds. Duke, Connecticut, Michigan State, and Oklahoma should be the two seeds. If any of those teams could swap places, it would be UConn and Memphis, but with 25 straight wins and an absolute demolition of the C-USA, it would be unfair to the Tigers to leave them off the top line.

In the Big East, I have Syracuse as a solid #4, Marquette as a weak #6, and West Virginia as a solid #6. Providence heads to the NIT as a 2-seed, a victim of a brutal Big East schedule and a tight bubble due to mediocrity in the Big Ten and the SEC.

I have Penn State out. San Diego State in. Maryland in. St. Mary's out. (That cheap tactic of scheduling a cupcake after the conference tournament cannot be rewarded!) Arizona gets in, and its streak of tournament appearances survives one more year. Minnesota? Sorry Tubby. The Gophers are out despite his excellent coaching job turning that team around. Wisconsin is in, and is the safest of all the teams listed in this paragraph.

I think Creighton gets in as the very last team, as long as Tennessee holds off Mississippi St. this afternoon in the SEC final.

If I were in charge of the committee, Davidson would be in on the strength of a recovered Stephen Curry alone. But all signs point to Davidson heading to the NIT, where Curry will have one more chance to perform his magic in Madison Square Garden before heading to the NBA. 

We'll see how I did in a few hours.

What are your bracket predictions?

Pitino puts on free coaching clinic for Jay Wright

Louisville 69
Villanova 55
(box score)

#5 Louisville: 27-5 (18-2 BE)
#10 Villanova: 26-7 (14-6 BE)


Sometimes, it's just nice to watch a master at work -- even if the master is carving up your favorite basketball team like a sushi chef working on some rapidly spoiling fish.

On Friday night, Rick Pitino was that master, and he made Jay Wright his unwilling apprentice. Once again, Pitino showed why he was one of the top coaches in basketball history, official Big East awards hardware be damned.

Trailing by eight at the half, Pitino calmly gave a brief halftime interview to ESPN, then went inside the locker room to make the crucial adjustments. Jay Wright is very good at the media-friendly first part; experience is showing he may have to work on the latter issue a bit.

For the second game in as many days, Villanova collapsed epically in the second half. Just when you thought that it could not get any worse after Villanova surrendered a 16-point lead in the final 20 minutes of the Marquette game, the Wildcats allowed a similar 15-point swing against Louisville -- in under five minutes.

Villanova went from up eight to down seven in the first five minutes of the second period. In a game sandwiched at Madison Square Garden between two Herculean efforts from the Syracuse Orange spanning four halves and seven overtimes, Villanova quickly accepted its fate and folded before even thirty minutes of playing time had elapsed.

As an eternal optimist when it comes to Villanova basketball, I usually save the "game over" comments and text messages for when the game is truly out of reach, a tipping point that had to be re-calibrated after the Wildcats made up 15 points in two minutes against LSU last year.

Not tonight. It was clear that as soon as Louisville made its run, and then prematurely extinguished the Wildcats' response, that Villanova was done. Game over.

Some other fans quickly attributed the team's failure to "exhaustion," an argument that usually smacks of absurdity, but seems especially ridiculous considering Syracuse played the equivalent of three basketball games in 26 hours on the same court -- and won, too.

No, the reason Villanova was beaten so soundly and so thoroughly tonight had less to do with exertion than with preparation. The Wildcats were not ready to take the floor. Whatever plan Wright and his staff cooked up was totally obsolete by the time the halftime clock expired.

Villanova played right into Louisville's hands. First, the 'Cats had no effective plan to deal with -- surprise! -- Rick Pitino's world-famous press. Indeed, Villanova was forced to burn a timeout on its very first possession when Shane Clark was unable to inbound the ball after the game's first basket. That, in a word, is embarrassing.

It's not like Louisville's press worked to perfection on that first play: several Wildcats just stood around on the inbound. Were they not expecting Rick Pitino to press? That's like being surprised to learn that bears shit in the woods.

Second, Villanova left home on the defensive perimeter, time and time again, allowing Louisville to rotate the ball for open shots.

Despite the early signs of poor preparation, Villanova managed to eke out an eight-point lead in the first 20 minutes, largely because the Cardinals could not connect on their perimeter looks.

In the second half, two things happened that quickly turned the game. One, Louisville finally started making its open looks. Two, Villanova completed its complete devolution into a team that cannot handle the ball under pressure -- under any circumstances.

Villanova turned the ball over 23 times, often when the ball was not even being defended. A few times just the threat of pressure caused this ill-prepared Villanova team to throw the ball away.

Even when Villanova didn't turn it over, the offense was often rushed and pathetic. The Wildcats offered up a few "air-ball turnovers," or shots that have so little chance to go in they should just be counted as official turnovers.

You'd think after suffering from the full-court pressure in Villanova's home loss to Louisville earlier this season, Wright and his staff would concoct a few tricks to ease the pressure.

Well, if they did, it did not show tonight. Villanova absolutely withered under the Cardinal pressure, and put up little resistance on the defensive end, too.

Note to Wright and co.: Pitino does not hold a monopoly on the press. It is fully legal, even advisable, to respond to pressure with pressure of your own -- at least if your team is conditioned well enough to perform it.

Another perhaps faulty assumption the astute observer might make is that after seeing how frustrated the Cards became on offense when they weren't able to get open perimeter looks off the second pass, the Villanova staff would emphasize staying at home on the perimeter in the second period.

Pitino himself even admitted it at the half and after the game. He said his team suffers when forced to go one-on-one, and thrives when it can make the extra pass on the outside for a better look.

So why did Villanova's wing players collapse nearly every time in the second half, allowing jumper after jumper to swish through the net, erasing any hopes for the first Villanova Big East championship of this millennium?

The fact is that Louisville was better coached, better conditioned, and better prepared than the Wildcats, and that let the Cardinals turn an 8-point deficit into a 14-point win rather easily in a single half.

After the game, Wright praised Pitino's style. "We knew this was going to be tough when you're playing the Big East champions," Wright said. "I love how they play. "

I love how they play, too, Jay. My only hope is that maybe you were taking notes.

Congratulations to reader "Pretty Toney" for most closely predicting the final score.

Villanova now awaits its seed and first-weekend location, to be determined on Sunday night by the all-powerful NCAA selection committee.

My guess is that Villanova will be a #3 seed slated to play at the Wachovia Center in Philadelphia, which would mean its next game will be on Thursday against a #14 seed automatic-bid winner from a small conference.

Hopefully, Villanova will use the intervening week to get its act together enough to make a nice tournament run.

On to the player grades. "READ MORE" below for player performance grades and analysis.

• Scottie Reynolds (S, 38 min)

  Just an awful night for Reynolds. He could not find the bottom of the net (1-6) and missed all 3 of his three-point attempts. He committed a whopping 6 turnovers. The only things saving Reynolds from the dreaded "F" are his 4 rebounds, 3 assists, and 4 steals. Reynolds was hounded on Friday by Louisville's pressure defense, but he will have to pick it up if the Wildcats want to play beyond next weekend.
  Grade: D-




• Reggie Redding (S, 32 min)

  Despite Thursday's clutch finish, I've noticed that Redding has the tendency to either choke or disappear in big moments. He did a little bit of both Friday night, emerging from second-half obscurity to miss two key free throws that would have brought the 'Cats within 5 and completed a 5-0 Villanova run. Redding was 1-3 from the field, and an inexcusable 1-4 from the foul line. At least he didn't have any turnovers. Redding added 6 rebounds but just 1 assist -- so much for Jay Wright's designation of Redding as the team's "best playmaker."
  Grade: D




• Dwayne Anderson (S, 29 min)

  Anderson shot relatively well while his teammates struggled. He often benefited from an off-balance Cardinals defense -- at least when the Wildcats managed to get the ball across halfcourt. Anderson was able to connect on some nice jumpers while shooting 5-8 overall, including 2-4 from the three. He added 5 rebounds and 2 assists. His decent shooting night was sullied, however, by his 4 turnovers.
  Grade: C+





• Corey Fisher (26 min)

  Fisher shot well on Friday but simply could not take care of the ball. Seven turnovers...ugh. Here is where I can't blame the loss entirely on the coaching. While it's true that Fisher had an uphill battle to break the Cardinal pressure without (seemingly) much help from the sidelines, there still is no excuse for him to throw the ball away so many times. Fisher shot 4-8 from the field, including a good 3-5 from the three. He was a perfect 3-3 from the line, as well. He dished out 3 assists, grabbed 2 rebounds, picked up 2 steals, and scored 14 points. Very decent numbers, except for the 7 turnovers.
  Grade: D+
  
  

• Dante Cunningham (S, 24 min)

  Cunningham had a very nice first half, but then disappeared in the second, mired by foul trouble. I don't know why he sat for so long in the second half -- what was the worst that could happen, Jay? We were already getting crushed; so what if Dante fouls out? In his 24 minutes, Cunningham played well. He shot 5-11 from the field, and was a perfect 4-4 from the foul line. He pulled in 9 boards and committed just 1 turnover. The foul trouble, however, was killer, because Cunningham was such a big part of the team's offense.
  Grade: B




• Corey Stokes (23 min)

  Stokes couldn't find the stroke from the three (1-5) or from the field in general (1-9) tonight. He did pull in 6 boards, but he committed 2 turnovers, and did not collect any steals, assists, or blocks.
  Grade: D
  
  

• Shane Clark (S, 21 min)

  Just a dreadful night for Clark. Airballs (plural.) Two big, memorable turnovers. Just 2 rebounds in 21 minutes. Clueless ball handling. Bad inbounding. Clark shot 0-6 from the field, but was a decent 5-6 from the foul line. Not enough to move the grade up from the floor, though.
  Grade: F
  
  

• Antonio Pena (6 min)

  Pena missed his only shot and collected just 1 rebound in 6 minutes. He didn't get much of an opportunity tonight, but he did very little in the brief time he was out there.
  Grade: D





• Incomplete grades: Russell Wooten (1 min).



• Did not play: Frank Tchuisi (CD), Jason Colenda (CD), Maurice Sutton (RS).

Villanova faces Louisville in Big East semifinal

#10 Villanova (26-6) vs. #5 Marquette (26-5)
7 p.m., 13 March 2009 at Madison Square Garden

TV: ESPN

Line: Louisville -4.5

Villanova survived its scare with Marquette on Thursday to advance to the Big East tournament semifinal, where it will face the top-seeded Louisville Cardinals.

While the Wildcats needed a buzzer-beating Dwayne Anderson layup on a broken play to get past Marquette, Louisville had a much easier time with the Providence Friars in Thursday's early game.

With Oklahoma losing on Thursday, Louisville will have that much more motivation to advance to the BET finals and earn a one-seed in the NCAA tournament. Pitt and UConn are both out, so Louisville has a chance to argue that it finished ahead of both of those likely one-seeds in the regular season and the championship tournament.

Villanova needs to keep winning for a shot at a 2-seed, though the Wildcats are most likely now assured of a 3-line and the Philadelphia date that will probably accompany it.

Take a look at the other five 'Nova blogs linked at right for their previews, and then come back into our comment section to predict the final score.

Villanova beats Marquette at buzzer

Villanova escaped Madison Square Garden on Wednesday with an unlikely one-point victory over Marquette, 76-75.

The Wildcats won the game on a dramatic Dwayne Anderson layup that beat the buzzer, but not before rolling around the rim for a few revolutions after time expired.

Villanova had led by 16 at the half before blowing that entire margin in the second period.

With the win, Villanova goes a long way in securing a top-3 seed in the NCAA tournament, and the increased likelihood of playing the first round in Philadelphia that goes with it. By stealing this game by one point, the Wildcats avoided being a part of the day's rampant carnage in the top-15 -- Clemson, Kansas, Oklahoma, Pitt, and UConn all lost. (Losing in six overtimes is still a loss, although it feels closer to a tie.)

Villanova now looks to have secured a 3-seed in the big dance, with a 2-seed within reach if the Wildcats keep winning.

No grades for this game, since I just got back from New York, and the Louisville game starts in 15 hours.

If you want to see what I thought of the game, check out the intermittent Tweeting sent in from my mobile phone during the game.

Congratulations to reader Mills for most closely predicting the final score.

Next up for the Wildcats is #1 conference seed Louisville in the first semifinal on Friday evening.

Villanova opens BET vs. Marquette

#10 Villanova (25-6) vs. #21 Marquette (24-8)
2:30 p.m., 12 March 2009 at Madison Square Garden

TV: ESPN

Line: Villanova - 2.5

Villanova will play its third game of the season against Marquette today when the two teams meet in the quarterfinals of the Big East championship tournament.

The Wildcats were seeded into the third round thanks to their top-four finish, while Marquette received just one bye. The Golden Eagles reached the quarterfinal round by demolishing St. John's on Wednesday.

The two teams split their season series, with Marquette winning in January and Villanova coming out on top in February. Both teams held serve at their respective home-courts.

Marquette is without its star point guard Dominic James, who had a history of burning the 'Cats these past four seasons.

Both teams are solidly in the NCAA tournament and are now playing for seeding. With a win, Villanova puts itself in prime position to earn a top-3 seed and a bus trip to Philadelphia for the first weekend of the NCAA tournament.

Take a look at the other five 'Nova blogs linked at right for their previews, and then come back into our comment section to predict the final score.

'Nova clinches double bye with Prov. win

Providence 80
Villanova 97
(box score)

Providence: 18-12 (8-10 BE)
#11 Villanova: 25-6 (13-5 BE)

Villanova flexed its offensive muscles on Thursday night as the Wildcats exploded for 97 points to defeat Providence in the year's final game at the Pavilion.

With the win, Villanova secured an all-important top-four finish in the Big East, and the two days of byes that go along with it. The Wildcats will now be seeded all the way into the quarterfinals of the Big East tournament on Thursday.

Villanova also maintains its position as a potential top-3 seed in the NCAA tournament, which is crucial if the Wildcats would like to play the first two rounds in their home-away-from-home at the Wachovia Center in Philadelphia.

It was an excellent offensive game for the Wildcats, who scored 57 points in the second half and shot well overall. Scottie Reynolds, Dwayne Anderson, and Corey Fisher all played outstanding games for Villanova, and the 'Cats looked unstoppable when all their weapons were blazing.

Providence finishes the regular season with an 18-12 record, which normally might not earn a team an at-large invitation to the NCAA tournament. The Friars, however, are 10-8 in the country's best conference, and boast a premium win over then-#1 Pittsburgh.

Conventional bracketology wisdom suggests that Providence would have been a lock with a win over Villanova, but will now need to win one at Madison Square Garden to have a good chance on Selection Sunday.

Congratulations to reader "bosshoghazzard" for most closely predicting the final score.

Villanova now has a full week off to prepare for its post-season. After a grueling Big East season, I am sure the rest will be welcome.

According to the official bracket (PDF), Villanova will next take the court on Thursday at 2 p.m. In practice, however, the game always starts later than that, closer to 2:30.

Villanova will face the winner of the #5 vs. #12/#13 game, which will most likely be Marquette.


On to the player grades. "READ MORE" below for player performance grades and analysis.

• Scottie Reynolds (S, 36 min)

  Reynolds continued his scorching shooting ways tonight, shooting an excellent 9-13 from the field. He also put in an outstanding performance from the three, hitting 5-9, or the equivalent of shooting 83% from the two. He did miss both his free throw attempts, which is a bit troubling, since his free throw shooting seems to be dropping off a bit lately. Reynolds added 4 steals, 4 assists, and just 2 turnovers. Let's hope Scottie can continue his hot streak through the entire month of March.
  Grade: A




• Dante Cunningham (S, 36 min)

  Positives tonight were 19 points, 8 rebounds, 3 steals, and 2 blocks. The negatives, however, were substantial. Cunningham shot a dismal 8-17 to get those 19 points, including several missed jumpers that he probably should have passed on altogether. He missed 4 of his 7 free throw attempts, as well. Cunningham also led the team in turnovers, with 5, committing a whopping 71.4 percent of the team's turnovers despite playing 18 percent of the team's minutes. If you haven't surmised this already, I really hate turnovers, especially by forwards. Perhaps worst of all, however, was Cunningham's defense, which was uncharacteristically soft tonight. Cunningham allowed at least three uncontested lay-ups or dunks. All in all, the positives save this grade from the dreaded "F," but it was nonetheless one of the worst games for Cunningham of the season.
  Grade: D




• Reggie Redding (S, 31 min)

  Redding was Mr. Pass tonight, dishing out 11 of the Wildcats' 26 assists. Those assists definitely earned him 31 minutes, but Redding's normal reason for playing so much, defense, was lacking tonight. Redding was responsible much of the night for covering Weyinmi Efejuku, who lit up the Wildcats for 29 points. Redding was not fast enough to stay near Efejuku at all, which could bode ill for the Wildcats against teams with similar star players. Aside from his excellent passing night, Redding had little other statistical impact. He shot 1-3 to score 2 points, and added 0 turnovers, steals, or blocks. He grabbed 2 rebounds. Those 11 assists go a long way to make up for a terrible night defensively, but it still was not much better than average for Reggie.
  Grade: C+





• Corey Fisher (27 min)

  Twenty-seven minutes are more like it for Fisher, unquestionably the team's most potent sparkplug. I'd prefer his minutes get up to the mid-thirties, but I guess it's one step at a time for Wright. Fisher shot 3-9 from the field, including 1-3 from the three, to go with his excellent 6-6 performance from the foul line. He handled the ball perfectly, dishing out 6 assists while committing 0 turnovers. His defense was outstanding, and he grabbed 4 steals. He was quick enough to stay with anyone on the perimeter, as well. It was a nearly perfect game for Fisher aside from the slightly reduced scoring output of 13. Fisher showed tonight he could have an excellent impact on the game even while not making many baskets, and this should finally (hopefully?) earn Fisher some more minutes in the post-season.
  Grade: A-
  
  

• Corey Stokes (21 min)

  Stokes was a major force in this game. He continued his hot shooting from the three, hitting 3-5. He also used his good height and strength to grab 4 rebounds and 1 block. He played decent defense, and added 1 steal. I think 21 minutes tonight was a big under-utilization of Stokes. Imagine how hard it will be for Villanova's opponents to contain the Wildcats with all four of Stokes, Fisher, Reynolds, and Cunningham firing on all cylinders. In order for this to happen, Stokes has got to get the minutes to heat up and stay effective.
  Grade: B+
  
  

• Shane Clark (S, 20 min)

  Clark was not at all effective on offense (1-5 shooting, no foul attempts, no assists), but was a little better on the defensive end. Clark had 2 steals and 5 rebounds in his 20 minutes. I'd like to see 10 of his minutes go immediately to Stokes, but you have to admire Clark's hustle.
  Grade: C
  
  
  

• Dwayne Anderson (S, 17 min)

  Anderson, troubled by early fouls, still managed to score 19 points in 17 minutes, which is excellent. And he shot very well, 7-11, 3-5, and 2-2. Anderson, who had missed his 12 prior three-pointers before the game, is the ultimate streak shooter, and it's great to see him take those shots when he is hot. He also added 7 rebounds in just 17 minutes: compare that to Cunningham's 8 in 36. Anderson also added 3 assists, 1 block, and 4 steals in a phenomenal effort, playing half the game. If we extrapolate what his line would have looked like with 35 minutes, we get 39 points, 14 rebounds, 8 steals, 2 blocks, and 6 assists! Of course, it would have been difficult for him to maintain that pace, but what a game for Anderson despite the fouls.
  Grade: A





• Antonio Pena (9 min)

  Just 9 minutes, but a bit of a resurgence for Antonio Pena. He shot a good 2-4, showing intelligent awareness and spacing on the offensive end. He also was a perfect 2-2 from the foul line. He added 1 rebound, 2 blocks, and 1 steal in his very limited time.
  Grade: B





• Incomplete grades: Frank Tchuisi (1 min), Jason Colenda (1 min), Russell Wooten (1 min).



• Did not play: Maurice Sutton (RS).

Live blog for Providence tonight

#11 Villanova (24-6) vs. Providence (18-11)
7 p.m., 5 March 2009 at the Pavilion.

TV: ESPN2

Line: Villanova -10.5

Join Let's Go Nova tonight at 7 p.m. for a special regular-season finale LIVE BLOG.

Fire up your fake usernames and outlandish comments, Let's Go Nova nation, as it is time once again for a very special live weblog tonight. We begin at 7 p.m., so don't forget to get here early with your comments, questions, opinions, and pleas for me to permanently stop blogging, forever.

Villanova closes out its regular season with a Pavilion game against the Providence Friars.

Providence might be the quintessential NCAA tournament bubble team. It's got a decent resume, but it's probably not in the field of 65 yet. The Friars might need to do a bit more work to really feel comfortable on selection night, and they still have the Big East tournament after tonight to do it.

The Friars, thus, could lose tonight and still dance, so they might not be as desperate as the Wildcats' last opponent, Notre Dame. But many bracketologists think Providence could lock up a spot with a premium win at Villanova tonight.

The game is equally important for Villanova, which now controls its own destiny for the coveted double-bye in the Big East tournament. With a victory tonight, the Wildcats earn themselves an extra day off next week and an automatic seed into the conference quarterfinals in New York.

VIllanova also has more important NCAA seeding issues to consider. The Wildcats must stay on the #3 seed line in order to get a good chance at playing in Philadelphia on the first weekend. With a win tonight and a 1-1 performance in the conference tournament, Villanova should hold up on the #3-line.

One month ago, Villanova won a close decision at Providence, 94-91.

For tonight, KenPom predicts a 14-point Villanova margin, with an 87 percent chance of victory.

Take a look at the other five 'Nova blogs linked at right for their previews, and then come back into our comment section to predict the final score of the last regular season.

See you at 7.

Villanova handles Notre Dame

Villanova 77
Notre Dame 60
(box score)

#11 Villanova: 24-6 (12-5 BE)
Notre Dame: 16-13 (7-10 BE)


Villanova broke away in the second half on Monday night to soundly put away a Notre Dame team fighting for its post-season life.

The Wildcats used an offense firing on all cylinders to scorch the Irish for 45 second-period points on the way to an easy win, despite a score knotted at 32 at the half.

I actually agreed with Jay Wright's rotation for much of the game. It was good to see Fisher and Reynolds out there together for good stretches, and I like how the team clicked offensively with two Coreys and Reynolds as threats. The only real problem I had tonight was Wright's continued under-utlization of Stokes, who could be a major weapon if he played more than one-third of the game.

All in all, though, it was a well coached game by Wright, who seems to have rebounded from his disaster against Georgetown last Saturday. Let's hope he can keep it up against tougher competition in the post-season.

With the win, Villanova keeps its chances of a double bye in the Big East tournament alive. The Wildcats now need to beat Providence and have Marquette lose to Pittsburgh to earn the #4 seed and the two days off that go with it.

More important, Villanova kept itself in a plausible position to receive a #3 seed in the NCAA tournament, which would likely place the Wildcats in Philadelphia for the first weekend, a tremendous advantage.

Looking at the current state of the top-15, it looks like Villanova will have to defeat Providence on Thursday and then win at least one game in Madison Square Garden to stay in the 3-seed conversation.

Notre Dame, on the other hand, all but sealed its fate in the NIT on Monday, barring a McNamarian run in the Big East Tournament.

The Irish find themselves behind 10 teams in the conference with better resumes: Connecticut, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Marquette, Villanova, West Virginia, Syracuse, Georgetown, Providence, and Cincinnati. All but the last three of these teams should be in the field at this point.

Although the argument could be made that all of remaining three serious Big East bubble teams deserve to get into the NCAA tournament, my guess is that just two will make it, and I give the advantage to Georgetown and Providence, pending each team's final few games.

Congratulations to an anonymous reader for most closely predicting the game's final score.

On to the player grades. "READ MORE" below for player performance grades and analysis.

• Scottie Reynolds (S, 39 min)

  Before the game, I was telling one of my friends that Scottie Reynolds should shoot more threes, because that is how he heats up on his epic scoring efforts. Looks like Reynolds got the memo on that one. Reynolds scorched the nets at the Joyce Center, scoring 23 pints on excellent 8-12 shooting, including a fantastic 6-7 from the three. And it's good to see him playing 39 of 40 minutes with no major signs of fatigue. It didn't hurt that Corey Fisher was around for 20 minutes to handle point duties for Reynolds, either. I would like to see Reynolds play the two-guard for 30+ minutes in Villanova's post-season. Reynolds finished the game with good numbers across the board: 6 rebounds, 5 assists, 2 steals, and 1 turnover. It was one of the best overall performances by a Villanova guard I have ever seen. Complete, mistake-free, excellent all around.
  Grade: A




• Reggie Redding (S, 38 min)

  Redding played well against Notre Dame, but was it 38-minutes well? I guess it worked out. He was quietly efficient on the offense, shooting 3-5, including 1-1 for three, to score 7 points. Redding added 4 boards, 3 assists, 2 steals, 1 block, and 2 turnovers to his well-rounded effort. He looked good on the defensive end after giving up some key plays against Georgetown.
  Grade: B




• Dante Cunningham (S, 35 min)

  Cunningham shot 8-18 tonight, which is not a bad night for a shooting guard, but should be embarrassing for a power-forward. I don't know why the conventional wisdom seems to be that Cunningham's work in the offseason paid off in the form of a new, ultra-reliable jump-shot, because to me it looks like the same old shot. Except that this year, Cunningham takes a lot more of them. I lost count of how many jumpers he missed during the game: thankfully the play-by-play in the box score remembers. Cunningham was 6-16 on jump-shots. Let that number stew around in your head for a while, and remember you are considering a once-efficient power forward, and not John Starks in the NBA Finals. Cunningham was 8-18 overall, so that means he was 2-2 on non-jump shots. Now, the official box score has a very loose definition of a jumper, so it categorizes some paint shots as jump-shots, but I can assure you that Cunningham made more from the inside and missed more from the outside. Can you imagine how much better it would have been for Villanova if Cunningham didn't miss 10 jumpers? Having Cunningham shoot low-percentage shots from outside the key is a double whammy for the 'Cats: not only are they bad shots, but it leaves Cunningham, the team's best rebounder, out of place for any chance at a carom. Wouldn't you rather 10 more shots for Stokes from the outside, with Cunningham underneath for the rebound, instead? I would, too. Against the Irish, Cunningham finished with 8 rebounds. He added 1 turnover, and 0 blocks, assists, or steals.
  Grade: B-




• Dwayne Anderson (S, 24 min)

  Anderson just could not find his shot. As the ultimate streak shooter, he has got to recognize when he is on and when he is not. Against the Irish, he was most certainly off. The nadir of Anderson's night was a missed wide-open 2-pt jumper from the baseline that was a complete air-ball. Things were going so well for Villanova, though, that a few seconds later, after an offensive rebound, Anderson was dunking it in anyway. But shooting 2-9, including 0-4 from the three, could hurt the team, especially when most of those shots weren't even close. Anderson played well otherwise, notching 6 boards, 2 assists, 3 steals, 1 block, and 1 turnover. Playing 24 minutes seems about right for Anderson, too. Just stop missing so many shots!
  Grade: C+




• Corey Fisher (20 min)

  Sure, Fisher was 0-5 from the field, but the shots he took were good, high-percentage shots. A player can only be judged on his decisions, and not his results. Fisher also passed the ball very well, dishing 3 assists in half a game, and he would have had more had some of his pass-recipients finished easy looks. He also had 1 block, 1 steal, and zero turnovers. So what if he scored just 2 points? Fisher played well. He was plagued by foul trouble against Notre Dame, which is why he played just 20 minutes. I am convinced he would have seen another 10 minutes despite his cold shooting if fouls were not an issue.
  Grade: B-
  
  

• Shane Clark (S, 18 min)

  Clark turned it on in the second half, playing his trademark cleanup game of put-backs and efficient shots. And thank goodness. This is Clark's bread-and-butter, and let's hope he can keep it up. He sat in the first half with two quick fouls, and honestly, the offense looked pretty good without him. But there is no denying the value he brought in the second half with his hustle game, and there is always a place for that on the court. Clark shot a good 5-7 from the field, but only managed 1 rebound in 18 minutes. He had 0 assists, turnovers, steals, or blocks, and was 2-3 from the foul line. One thing Jay Wright needs to be careful of is leaving Clark, who misses nearly half his free throws, on the court at the end of close games where fouling becomes a factor.
  Grade: B
  
  

• Corey Stokes (13 min)

  Ugh, why only 13 minutes for Stokes, who is by far the team's best shooter. Did you know that Stokes is shooting 44 percent from the three? That's too high a percentage! That means he needs to take more threes! I really don't know why Stokes was only allotted 13 minutes tonight; it just seems Wright keeps him on a very short leash, often yanking him out of the game after a few possessions. What I do know is that to beat teams that will put up more resistance than a fading Notre Dame, Villanova will need another scoring thread to complement Reynolds, Fisher, and Cunningham. Stokes is definitely that guy. He was pretty quiet against the Irish, scoring just 3 points on one really nice shot. During a possession at the end of the first half, Stokes freed himself to rotate to the top of the key, caught the ball in stride, and drained a gorgeous shot. I wish he would launch a few more of those in increased minutes.
  Grade: B-
  
  

• Antonio Pena (13 min)

  During the game broadcast, announcer Jay Bilas echoed a joke from this space a few games ago about Pena on a milk carton. Well, it looks like Pena is back, albeit in a slightly diminished role. Pena shot a decent 2-4 from the field and 2-2 from the foul line for 6 total points. He had 3 boards, and no assists, turnovers, steals, or blocks.
  Grade: B-





• Incomplete grades: Frank Tchuisi (0+ min), Jason Colenda (0+ min).



• Did not play: Russell Wooten (CD), Maurice Sutton (RS).

Villanova sputters past DePaul

Villanova 74
DePaul 72
(box score)

#12 Villanova: 23-5 (11-4 BE)
DePaul: 8-20 (0-15 BE)


Villanova once again played down to the level of its competition in an ugly two-point victory at DePaul Wednesday night.

The Wildcats used a second-half run to build a solid lead, erasing an improbable half-time deficit, before collapsing yet again in the game's final minutes to allow a DePaul comeback.

Despite Dar Tucker's successful heave for three at the end of the game, Villanova was able to emerge with the slim victory.

A win is a win, right? Well I'll take it, but it wasn't pretty. Conceding that it's great Villanova managed to escape with the win, let's look at what went wrong that kept the game so close.

Jay Wright inexplicably continued to keep the Coreys on the pine tonight. Fisher and Stokes combined for just 43 minutes, despite playing very well. By contrast, the hopeless duo of Dwayne Anderson and Shane Clark (4 pts on 1-8 shooting) combined for 45 minutes.

With Reggie Redding already in there for defense, does Jay Wright think that giving Anderson and Clark more minutes than the two electric sophomores is a good idea? I sure don't. I think it almost cost us a game against 0-15 DePaul.

And how good was the defense, anyway, allowing such a poor shooting team to score 72 points? And it would have been much more, too, if DePaul had made more of its wide-open threes.

When a team ranked #10 in the nation barely escapes with a 2-point win after trailing for most of the game to a team that has lost 15 consecutive games, something is wrong. And I would argue that something is Jay Wright's ham-handed substitution tactics.

Case in point: The Wildcats scored just 25 points in the first half, a horrible output. The only Villanova player with the slightest offensive pulse in the first period was Fisher, who scored 9 points in limited time.

So does Wright start Fisher to begin the second half? Of course not. In fact, Fisher languished on the bench until the 12-minute mark in the second, when Wright finally brought him off the bench...only to yank him from the game 5 minutes later. Fisher played just eight minutes in the second half. Eight. Was Fisher really 50 percent worse in the second half than the first (16 min)?

It's the same story with Corey Stokes. With Villanova scoring just 25 in the first half, was Dwayne Anderson (0-6 from the three in 29 minutes) really 53 percent better than Stokes (3-7 in 19 minutes)? Of course not. So why did Stokes receive 53 percent less playing time?

Face the facts, Nova Nation. Wright is so ingrained in his ways, stubborn to the core, that he simply refuses to make the in-game adjustments needed to consistently win games against NCAA-caliber opponents.

It's a very frustrating time to be a Villanova fan. On the one hand, you have to be thrilled with winning eight of the last nine games, and being in the driver's seat for a #2 or #3 seed in the NCAA tournament.

On the other hand, you have to be very concerned with some of the warning signs that this team might not last long in the NCAAs. Barely beating Rutgers and DePaul, two of the worst major-conference teams in the country, is one such warning sign. Allowing teams to come back from the dead with shots to win the game (Syracuse, DePaul, among many others) is another bad sign.

But the worst thing of all is simply the lack of trust in the head coach experienced by some fans. Yes, Wright coached his way to a two-point victory over DePaul, underperforming the Pomeroy prediction by a whopping 14 points.

But what happens when his refusal to make in-game adjustments comes into play against a team that isn't a pushover? What happens when his poor handling of end-game timeouts and offense-defense substitutions runs into a team that can take advantage of those opportunities?

It feels like a ticking clock, and Villanova's luck with Wright at the helm is bound to run out at any time.

In NCAA and BET seeding news, it was a good night for Villanova. Marquette lost to UConn, which will enable Villanova to earn a double-bye in the BET with some more Wildcat wins and/or some help from Marquette.

If Villanova goes 3-0, a double-bye is guaranteed for the Wildcats, except in one outlandish instance.

[This statement updated and corrected multiple times; thanks to reader Brian and to Nova Nut for their help on the tiebreakers].

Villanova can go 3-0 and still lose the double-bye if all of the following happens:

1. Nova beats G'town, Notre Dame, and Providence. (going 3-0)
2. Marquette beats Louisville and Syracuse. (going 2-1)
3. Louisville beats SHU and West Virginia. (going 2-0)
4. Pitt beats Marquette, UConn, and SHU. (going 3-0)
5. UConn loses to Notre Dame. (going 0-2)

This scenario would require 11 distinct games to all fall exactly right for Villanova to miss the double-bye while going undefeated. Another way of looking at it is there are eight games Villanova cannot control, and as long as Villanova takes care of business on its end, all eight games would have to go wrong for the 'Cats to play an extra day.

Assuming each of those eight games has a 50-50 chance of going either way (for simplification), the chances that Villanova wins all three remaining games and gets shut out of the double-bye are 1 in 256.

Otherwise, as long as Marquette loses to Pittsburgh, any other combination of Wildcat wins and Marquette losses totaling at least four will clinch the double-bye for Villanova. Any combination of Villanova wins and Marquette losses equaling five or more clinches the double-bye for Villanova regardless of the outcome of Marquette-Pitt.

If Marquette beats Pitt and the number of Marquette losses plus Villanova wins equals four, Marquette gets the better seed. Thanks to the Big East's obscure tiebeaking rules (PDF), in that scenario, Marquette gets the higher seed with equal records, equal-head-to-head, equal wins vs. Pitt, but a win over either Louisville or West Virginia, who both beat Villanova. However, if Marquette beats Pitt and Villanova wins out, that will catapult Villanova ahead of Pitt, so Villanova gets the double-bye anyway.

Clemson also lost tonight, which will let Villanova jump over the Tigers on the NCAA S-curve if the Wildcats keep winning.

Finally, URI upset Dayton tonight on a spectacular buzzer-beater, which improves Villanova's RPI.

Congratulations to an anonymous reader for most closely predicting the game's final score.

On to the player grades. "READ MORE" below for player performance grades and analysis.

• Reggie Redding (S, 35 min)

  Redding played another good game tonight. He shot 4-5 to score 9 points, and he led the team in rebounding, with 9. Redding also led the Wildcats with 5 assists. He added 1 steal, 1 block, and 3 turnovers. Redding choked big-time at the end of the game, missing the front end of a crucial one-and-one. Aside from that, It was a well rounded game for Redding, who earned his team-leading 35 minutes tonight. I am not saying Redding should be getting 35 minutes per game; if he gets less in order to get Fisher or Stokes in there more, that is something I'd be for.
  Grade: B+




• Scottie Reynolds (S, 32 min)

  Reynolds struggled for a good portion of the game before really turning it on in the closing minutes to help win the game for the Wildcats. He had one drive and layup that was so spectacular I was surprised it did not make the Sportscenter top plays. He shot 5-11 to score 18 points, but was cold from the three at 1-4. He was very good from the line, shooting 7 of 8. Reynolds pulled in 6 rebounds and grabbed 2 steals. He did not pass the ball well, notching just 1 assist. He had 2 turnovers.
  Grade: B+




• Dante Cunningham (S, 31 min)

  Cunningham led the team in field goal attempts, again, and I guess I can't begrudge him his shots this time, since he put them in at a reasonable rate against DePaul (7-13). Oddly, missing jumpers wasn't a problem tonight; it was several missed layups that hurt his shooting percentage. Cunningham did not do very well on the boards, grabbing just 5 rebounds. He was listed, once again, as a forward in the box score. The best part of Cunningham's game tonight was his 4-4 free throw performance, including two big ones in the endgame. He co-led the team in turnovers, with 3, and added 1 block,
  Grade: B




• Dwayne Anderson (S, 29 min)

  As hot as Anderson was against Syracuse, he was that much colder at DePaul. He shot terribly, inexcusably bad. Anderson was 1-7 from the field and a ridiculous 0-6 from the three. Like I said the past two games, Anderson needs to keep shooting when they're going in, and stop shooting when they're not. After going 0-3 from the three, maybe it's time to focus more on his well regarded hustle game, instead. Is it possible Anderson got a little taste of the glory that comes with leading the team in scoring last time, and got a little carried away? In any event, Anderson should be able to contribute in other ways if the shot is not falling. He did grab 6 rebounds tonight. He also had 2 steals to go with his 1 assist and 1 turnover.
  Grade: D




• Corey Fisher (24 min)

  Is there some secret rule Jay Wright is abiding by that says Corey Fisher can only play 24 minutes? This is the second straight game that Fisher has topped out at 24 minutes, missing a full 40 percent of the game, despite playing at the highest level. Fisher overcame his limited playing time -- did I mention eight minutes in the crucial second half? -- to play a very good game. He shot an excellent 5-8 from the field, including 1-2 from the three. He had 2 rebounds, 3 assists, and 2 turnovers. Two of his assists came on spectacular long passes into the paint. One thing that doesn't show in the box score is the increased energy of Villanova's offense when Fisher is running the show. Get him more time.
  Grade: A-
  
  

• Corey Stokes (19 min)

  Stokes still struggles to see the court as much as the bench, but he is clearly the best shooter the Wildcats have. Against DePaul, Stokes shot 3-7 from the three to score 10 points. He was not able to get much else going in his limited time, notching 0 assists, rebounds, steals, and blocks. He did avoid any turnovers, which was nice. I'd like to see Stokes taking more long-range shots, especially when Anderson is cold.
  Grade: B-




• Shane Clark (S, 16 min)

  Clark was not all that effective in his 16 minutes. Still, I think 16 minutes is more reasonable for his game, so I'm not complaining. He missed his only shot from the field, but was 2-2 from the foul line to score 2 points. He added 2 rebounds, 1 turnover, 0 assists, and 2 steals. The 2 steals were nice for a forward in limited time.
  Grade: C-
  
  

• Antonio Pena (14 min)

  Pena's playing time nearly tripled tonight after he mysteriously saw just 5 minutes against Syracuse. Pena didn't do all that much, but did have one really nice basket on the assist from Fisher that also drew a foul. He shot 1-2 and was 1-1 from the free throw line to score 2 points. He added 3 rebounds and 2 assists, but committed 2 turnovers.
  Grade: C





• Incomplete grades: None.



• Did not play: Frank Tchuisi (CD), Jason Colenda (CD), Russell Wooten (CD), Maurice Sutton (RS).