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20 March 2009


'Nova avoids disaster with win over American

posted by Pete @ LetsGoNova.com
3/20/2009 02:18:00 AM
Villanova 80
American 67
(box score)


American: 24-8
#11 Villanova: 27-7

Villanova used a furious second-half run and some very accommodating officiating to hold off an American team that looked for much of the game like it might pull off a major upset.

The Wildcats opened up limp in the first half and trailed by 10 at the break. Villanova would fall behind by as many as 14 points in the second half before turning the game around.

Villanova played to its low-major opponent's strength for the first part of the game, settling for outside jumpers and not guarding the perimeter closely.

The Wildcats started pushing the ball inside more in the second half, when they also benefitted from some very early American foul trouble.

Villanova was in the bonus for the game's final 12:27. American's most dangerous player, Garrison Carr, picked up his fourth personal foul with more than eight minutes to play.

Overall, Villanova attempted 29 free throws in the game, while American received just five foul shots. Some of that disparity can be attributed to the team's differing offensive attacks, but the officiating was certainly favorable to the pseudo-home-team Wildcats, as well.

One major question tonight was the total absence of Antonio Pena, who did not see the court at all. Is Jay Wright shortening the bench just for the sake of post-season shortening?

Logic would dictate that when the two tallest post players in the major American rotation are 6-8, it would be a good move to give Pena even more time than usual, not less. Pena, after all, is the team's second-best post scorer.

Chalk it up to another Jay-Wright playing-time mystery. One would hope Wright had a good reason this time and that it was not just an illogical whim; but one could very well be disappointed clinging to that hope.

With the win, Villanova avoided what would have been one of the most embarrassing losses in school history. The Wildcats will need to play at much higher level, much more consistently, if they hope to beat a non-Patriot League team in this tournament.

Congratulations to reader "Pena Power" for most closely predicting the final score.

Next up for Villanova is what should be an epic match with UCLA on Saturday.

The Bruins have been to three consecutive Final Fours, and are ranked #10 in the country by KenPom, nine places ahead of Villanova. Even after factoring in Villanova's semi-home-court advantage, KenPom gives UCLA a 53 percent chance to win.

On to the player grades. "READ MORE" below for player performance grades and analysis.




  • Reggie Redding (S, 36 min)

    One would have liked a bit more offensively out of Redding in 36 minutes versus a lesser-talented team. He was 1-4 from the field and 1-2 from the line. He was 1-3 on three-point attempts, including one very ill-advised shot. He grabbed 4 boards, passed for 1 assist, and had 1 turnover. He did not get any steals, but did lead the team in blocks with 4.
    Grade: C-



  • Dante Cunningham (S, 36 min)

    Cunningham handled much of the team's scoring load, putting in 25 on 9-16 shooting. As usual, he was great inside and on the break, but terrible outside. He has got to stop shooting outside jumpers: for one, he is a terrible jumpshooter from outside of 16 feet, and two, when he is out of the paint shooting them, he can't be inside the paint looking for rebounds. Cunningham was a perfect 7-7 from the foul line, which was crucial to the victory. He grabbed 7 rebounds, passed for 2 assists, and blocked 3 shots. He did have 4 turnovers, which is unacceptable against such an unathletic frontcourt.
    Grade: B-



  • Scottie Reynolds (S, 35 min)

    Reynolds struggled on the offense, but did find a way to get the job done in the game. He is just simply not suited to be a point guard, no matter how much Jay Wright tries to shoehorn him into the position. As noted by the announcers, Reynolds made terrible decisions with the ball, and indeed, the game did not turn around for the Wildcats until Fisher took over point duties. Reynolds shot 2-7 from the field and missed all 3 of his three-point attempts. He was 4-5 at the foul line. He dished out just 2 assists and committed 4 turnovers, but at least he had 3 steals. Villanova is going to need Reynolds in stride in order to score against Collison, Holiday, and Shipp, which might be the best defensive backcourt in America.
    Grade: C-



  • Dwayne Anderson (S, 31 min)

    Anderson basically won the game for Villanova. It was a dream match-up for Anderson; American had no one who could deal with his size, speed, athleticism, and scoring ability. Anderson shot a super-efficient 9-10 from the field, including 4-5 from the three. He was perfect from the foul line, shooting 3-3. He led the team in rebounds, with 8, stole 1 ball, passed for 1 assist, and committed 3 turnovers. He ran the floor well and played with energy and intensity. This is the kind of play Villanova needs from Anderson if the Wildcats plan to make a deep tournament run.
    Grade: A



  • Corey Fisher (27 min)

    Along with Anderson, Fisher was the difference in this game. Fisher put the team on his back in the second half and willed the Wildcats to victory. How well he played definitely is not reflected accurately in the box score: Fisher shot just 1-5 from the field to score 11 points. Fisher, however, drew so many fouls with his aggressive penetration play that he almost got the Eagles in foul trouble single-handidly. Fisher was an excellent 9-10 from the foul line. He passed for a team-high 4 assists. His three turnovers were mitigated by his 3 steals. Fisher's defense was also excellent. My guess is that this game would never have been in question if Fisher played 37 minutes instead of 27.
    Grade: A-

  • Shane Clark (S, 19 min)

    Clark is the worst defender in the rotation by an order of magnitude. He allowed so many threes in the first-half by unnecessarily doubling down on American's 6-8 post players, I didn't know what to say. Clark handled the ball slowly and clumsily and generally was in the wrong places at the wrong times. He did have one very nice interior assist to Cunningham, I will give him that. He also was a perfect 2-2 from the foul line. But he was 0-2 from the field and was not even a remote threat to score. He only grabbed 3 rebounds, tied for the lowest on the team. He passed for 3 assists and did not have any turnovers. He did, however, kill two fast-breaks prematurely (by my count) when the ball was routed through his hands. Nineteen minutes for Clark and zero for Pena is not a winning formula for this NCAA tournament.
    Grade: D-

  • Corey Stokes (16 min)

    Stokes is actually Villanova's most efficient offensive player, statistically, and he needs more time on the court. Tonight, Stokes shot 2-6 from the field and a bad 1-5 from the three. He added 3 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 turnover, 1 steal, and 1 block. I would like to see him in the 23-25 minute range next time.
    Grade: C-


  • Incomplete grades: None.


  • Did not play: Antonio Pena (CD), Frank Tchuisi (CD), Russell Wooten (CD), Jason Colenda (CD), Maurice Sutton (RS).


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19 March 2009


Villanova faces American in tourney opener

posted by Pete @ LetsGoNova.com
3/19/2009 03:23:00 AM
#11 Villanova (26-7) vs. American (24-7)
7:20 p.m., 19 March 2009 at the Wachovia Center

TV: CBS

Line: Villanova -17

After a full season of resume building, RPI watching, bubble debating, seed calculating, and bracket plotting; of wishing, hoping, thinking, praying, planning, and dreaming, the NCAA tournament is finally here.

Villanova, a 3-seed in the East region, draws the best possible geographic assignment for tonight's game against the 14th-seeded American Eagles.

The Wildcats need only take a short bus ride down 476-south and I-95, three-quarters an hour at most, to reach their first-weekend tournament site at the Wachovia Center in South Philadelphia.

Villanova has already played the NCAA-maximum three games here this season, and will try to make it an even five this weekend before potentially advancing to Boston.

American University itself has a relatively short trip from Washington, DC, and will try to pull off the upset.

The Eagles feature a senior-laden team that pushed 2-seed Tennessee to the edge of elimination for 35 minutes last year.

American's biggest weapon is a pair of sub-6-foot guards, Garrison Carr and Derrick Mercer, who each typically play 90 percent or more of available minutes. Stopping these quick guards will be the main focus of Villanova's celebrated back-court of Scottie Reynolds, Corey Fisher, Reggie Redding, and Corey Stokes.

The Eagles have another pair of major contributors, two 6-8 forwards: Brian Gilmore and Stephen Lumpkins. Gilmore, in particular, is dangerous on offense. Dante Cunningham, Antonio Pena, Dwayne Anderson, and Shane Clark will look to shut those two down.

Villanova will be favored in every possible way: talent, experience, home-court, seeding, and expectations.

American will have nothing to lose, everything to gain, and the relevant memory of staying right with Tennessee for 88 percent of its tournament game last year.

Oddsmakers favor Villanova by 17, which I think is a tad high, even for a pseudo home game. It is the NCAA tournament, after all, and American has lost just seven games all year. The Eagles are also winners of 13 in a row, one of the nation's longer win streaks.

Of course, the best win on the season for American was a road victory against Jacksonville four months ago, so Villanova really should be in the driver's seat.

Stats oracle KenPom predicts a 12-point Villanova victory, with a 90 percent chance for a Wildcats win.

Take a look at more previews than you can shake a stick at!
If Villanova is able to come away with the win, the Wildcats will face the winner of tonight's UCLA/VCU game on Saturday afternoon, also at the Wachovia Center.

Try to predict the game's final score in the comment section below.


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17 March 2009


How good is 'Nova's draw?

posted by Pete @ LetsGoNova.com
3/17/2009 01:28:00 AM
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We've had a few days to digest the NCAA tournament bracket, and we can start to draw some conclusions about Villanova's draw to Detroit.

At first, I was thrilled to find Villanova in the East regional -- not only for the excellent geography, but also because I consider Pittsburgh to be the weakest of the 1-seeds by far. There is no 1-seed I'd rather see Villanova play than Pittsburgh, especially since the Wildcats have already beaten the Panthers this year.

Similarly, I am happy Villanova has a potential Sweet 16 match-up with #2 Duke. The Blue Devils scare me a lot less than some of the other 2-seeds, especially Memphis.

But then I started to take a look at Villanova's earlier path to the Sweet 16 itself -- particularly, its mini-tournament in one of the two Philadelphia pods.

Of course, it is a tremendous advantage for Villanova to play its first two games in the Wachovia Center, its home court away from home. But are Villanova's podmates conducive to an easy trip to Boston for the Wildcats?

No way.

In the first round, Villanova draws a feisty American team. The Eagles return nearly everyone from last year, when they took 2-seed Tennessee to the brink of elimination in the first 35 minutes of the first round.

This year, American boasts an RPI in the 70s and actually received a vote in this week's AP top 25! Does that look like the profile of a lowly 14-seed?

Villanova, favored by 17, should win the game, of course. KenPom gives American just a 10 percent chance at the upset. If the Wildcats are able to hold on, they will not get a pushover in the second round.

Waiting for Villanova will be either #6 UCLA or #11 VCU.

First, let's start with VCU, in the event the Rams are able to pull off the upset.

VCU is ranked 55th this year by KenPom. The Rams also have excellent NCAA tournament experience from 2007, when they beat Duke in the first round and took Pitt to overtime in the second.

Senior guard Eric Maynor is back for one more tournament run before heading to the NBA. The Rams also have another future pro in big man Larry Sanders.

VCU is going to be a very tough out in this tournament.

But its opponent, #6 UCLA, looks even better.

Is UCLA the best-ever #6 seed in tournament history? Well, I can't think of one better. The Bruins have been to three consecutive Final Fours, and feature three seniors -- Darren Collison, Josh Shipp, and Alfred Aboya -- who have as much NCAA tournament experience as anyone in college basketball.

UCLA also has Jrue Holiday, one of the very best freshman guards in the country -- the Kemba Walker of the West.

The Bruins are ranked #17 in the nation by the coaches, and #18 by the writers. Those are significantly better rankings than the 21-24 range implied by the #6 seed.

Most frightening, however, is UCLA's KenPom rating: #9 in the country. For a 6-seed! Ahead of 3-seeds Mizzou (#10), Kansas (#11), and Villanova (#19). The Bruins are also ahead of 2-seeds MSU (#13) and Oklahoma (#17).

That means, according to KenPom, Villanova would be better off playing any of the other 3-seeds, two of the 2-seeds, all of the 4-seeds except Gonzaga, and all of the 5-seeds, than to play 6-seeded UCLA in the second round!

In fact, since UCLA is ranked a full 10 spots higher than Villanova, the Bruins would be significantly favored on a neutral court over the Wildcats. It's a good thing that the Wachovia Center will not be a neutral site for that game.

An obvious repudiation of this argument is the idea that the tournament is tough for everyone.

Well, not this tough. Look at the other 3-seeds this year and their paths to the sweet 16.

  • Missouri: Cornell; Utah St./Marquette
  • Kansas: ND State; Dayton/WVU
  • Syracuse: SF Austin; Temple/ASU

There is not a team on that list I wouldn't rather play than UCLA.

All in all, if the Wildcats are lucky enough to get past American on Thursday, UCLA is a monster assignment. It's more like an elite-8 game than a second-round match-up.

VCU would not be a cake walk, either.

If not for the friendly confines of the Wachovia Center, I'd be even more worried. But with the home-court edge, I think Villanova gets to Boston -- barely.

Once the 'Cats are in Boston, it's the smoothest possible sailing to Detroit. I really like the team's chances vs. Duke or Pittsburgh (or Texas or FSU).

So what do you think? Vote in the poll below.

Did the selection committee give Villanova a bit more of a test, factoring in the pseudo-home-court advantage? Or did Villanova just get unlucky in its first-weekend draw?

Maybe you totally disagree with me, and love Villanova's draw to the Sweet 16.

Either way, let me know in the comments.


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15 March 2009


Villanova-American game time

posted by Pete @ LetsGoNova.com
3/15/2009 11:06:00 PM
The NCAA has just released the official bracket with game times (PDF).

Third-seeded Villanova plays its first-round game against 14-seed American at 7:20 p.m. (EDT) Thursday at the Wachovia Center.

This was an expected time slot for the Wildcats, because it made sense for the NCAA to slate 'Nova podmate UCLA 30 minutes following Villanova, at about 9:50 p.m. Eastern, or just before 7 p.m. in Los Angeles.

Connecticut, which shares the Wachovia Center with Villanova but is not in the same pod, will tip off 30 minutes after Philly's opening game Thursday, the 8-9 game between BYU and TAMU. Expect UConn to take the court at about 3 p.m.

Should Villanova win on Thursday, the Wildcats will face the winner of UCLA-VCU at either 1:05 p.m. or 3:35 p.m. on Saturday.

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Villanova: 3-seed in Phila. v. American

posted by Pete @ LetsGoNova.com
3/15/2009 06:46:00 PM
Villanova will play American University at the Wachovia Center on Thursday, March 19.

Villanova, a 3-seed, faces the 14th-seeded American Eagles, champions of the Patriot League.

Game time is yet to be determined, but since UCLA is from the West Coast, the Bruins will most likely get the 9:30 p.m. slot, leaving Villanova-American to start at 7 p.m.

Villanova is in the East region (Boston), where Pitt is the #1 and Duke is the #2 seed (and potential Sweet 16 matchup).

UCLA is the 6-seed in Villanova's Philly pod as the potential second-round matchup. UCLA as a 6-seed is a very rough break for Villanova, as the Bruins might be one of the most dangerous 6-seeds ever, just one year removed from the Final Four.

KenPom ranks UCLA as the #9 team in the nation, while Villanova is #19. If both teams make it to the second round, KenPom will actually have UCLA favored to win, if you consider the Wachovia Center a neutral court. (Which it won't be.)

UCLA has one of the best resumes for a 6-seed I've ever seen. The Bruins are 14-6 in a good Pac-10, and have some great games out of conference. UCLA blew out Villanova common opponent Notre Dame by 26. They lost to Texas at Texas by fewer points than Villanova lost to Texas in a very pro-Villanova Madison Square Garden in New York.

The good news is that UCLA itself has a rough first-round matchup with Eric Maynor and VCU.

UCLA will be tough, but aside from that, you couldn't ask for much better for Villanova. Geographically, Villanova will own the crowd in Philadelphia and is very familiar with the Wachovia Center court.

If the Wildcats are able to win their Philly pod, it's off to to Boston and potential match-ups with Duke and Pitt in the Sweet 16 and Elite 8, respectively. You have figure that Villanova will have a large contingent of alumni in Boston.

As for matchups, Villanova has already beaten Pitt this season, and I like the way Villanova matches up with Duke as long as the Wildcats can figure out a way to stop Gerald Henderson.

But Villanova might face an extremely difficult test in round-2 vs. a seasoned UCLA team. This is where having the home crowd at the Wachovia Center, Villanova's home-away-from-home, is a huge advantage. Even so, go VCU!


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Tickets still available for Philly

posted by Pete @ LetsGoNova.com
3/15/2009 06:45:00 PM
A small number of general admission tickets are available for the three sessions in Philadelphia on Thursday and Saturday.

Villanova plays American in the #3 vs. #14 game in Philadelphia on Thursday night. Game time is yet to be determined, but it's likely Villanova will play in the early session to accommodate West Coast viewers watching UCLA in the other game.

The tickets come with seats, but the seats are not yet specified.

The tickets for the three sessions (six games) are being sold by Ticketmaster for their $220 face value plus fees.

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