Villanova soars past UCLA to Sweet 16

UCLA 69
Villanova 89
(box score)

#18 UCLA: 26-9
#11 Villanova: 28-7

Villanova fired on all cylinders on Saturday to blow out a very good UCLA team and march on to the Sweet 16 next weekend.

Not only was the game never really close; The Wildcats uncharacteristically played well for a full 40 minutes, the first time this season we have seen both the consistent effort and the results from this team across an entire game against top-flight opposition.

I have to hand it to Jay Wright: he coached an excellent game. His game plan worked well from start to finish, and the Wildcats' output looked like the result of meticulous preparation.

I even agreed with most of his substitution patterns and other in-game decisions.

After surviving too close a call against American where the Wildcats looked lost for two-thirds of the game, Villanova obviously had the Bruins' number from the tip on Saturday. With just two days between the games, the coaching staff certainly had begun preparing for UCLA before the American game on Thursday.

And it worked out.

Villanova's physical defense, its "nothing-easy" philosophy, and its tenacity in attacking the weak Bruin interior on the offensive end exploited UCLA's vulnerabilities while minimizing its strengths.

The Wildcat defense contained senior Darren Collison more than I thought possible in his final collegiate game, and his high-flying back-court mate Josh Shipp never cleared the tower.

Early physical play by Villanova helped set the tone that nothing would come easy for UCLA, leaving the Bruins' offense in disarray from the start. The Wildcats played a pressure defense, with a nifty 1-2-1 press and aggressive contention of all passing and dribbling lanes.

On the offensive end, the Wildcats used a balanced attack that emphasized getting to the rim, post play, and interior passing to rip the Bruins' exposed underside to shreds. Point guard Corey Fisher and shooting guard Reggie Redding were integral to the first tactic, and senior forward Dante Cunningham took care of the latter two.

These strategies, in turn, opened up some nice jump shots for Villanova's shooters, most notably Corey Stokes.

Overall, the game was a nice realization of the potential latent all season, given Villanova's offensive weapons. And it's almost scary to consider that Scottie Reynolds, the team's best scorer, remained in a bit of a shooting slump -- though his numbers improved Saturday, as well.

With Corey Fisher, Corey Stokes, Dante Cunningham, and Dwayne Anderson all scoring well, Villanova was unstoppable. Add a hot Scottie Reynolds to the mix, and the Wildcats would be able to play with -- and beat -- anyone this year.

In addition to the game itself, another highlight on Saturday was Jay Wright's decision to invite the 1971 Villanova team to sit behind his bench, and to join his team in the locker room afterwards.

Jack Kraft's 1971 team, of course, advanced to the national championship game before falling to John Wooden's UCLA Bruins.

Saturday was the first time the two programs had met in the NCAA tournament since then. Inviting the 1971 team to be front and center at the festivities was a classy move, and further demonstrates Wright's excellent handling of public relations for the team and the university.

Congratulations to reader "IMKL" for most closely predicting the final score.

Villanova now moves on to Boston for a Sweet 16 match with the Duke Blue Devils on Thursday. The game seems favorable for the Wildcats, as Villanova may be able to again exploit its athletic interior versus slower Blue Devils.

Shock and awe saturation coverage of the Duke game to follow later this week.

On to the player grades. "READ MORE" below for player performance grades and analysis.

• Reggie Redding (S, 34 min)

  One of the better games of Redding's career. This was why Wright prefers to give so much time to Redding over those who might score more efficiently -- and why Wright will likely start Redding next season despite the presence of five more talented guards on the roster. Redding played efficiently on offense, shooting 4-8 from the field, 1-2 from the three, and 4-4 from the line. He grabbed 6 rebounds and dished out a team-high 7 assists. He played excellent defense, not only coming up with 4 steals, but also doing great defensive jobs on UCLA's three perimeter stars (Collison, Shipp, and Jrue Holiday). The only downside to Redding's game was that he committed 4 of the 11 Wildcat turnovers, but it was till one of his best performances of the year.
  Grade: A-




• Dwayne Anderson (S, 34 min)

  Anderson didn't shoot nearly as well as he did against American, but he was hardly less effective. He shot 4-14 and 2-4 to score 10 points. Though the shooting numbers are bad, he made up for them with energy and aggression on defense, passing, and on the glass. Anderson led the team in rebounds with 11, and rounded out his box score with 3 assists, 3 steals, and 2 turnovers. Anderson's athletic, explosive game in the halfcourt will be key against Duke's runners and gunners.
  Grade: B+




• Scottie Reynolds (S, 31 min)

  Reynolds went a long way to break out of a recent shooting slump with some very decent offense on Saturday, He was 4-9 from the field and 2-6 from the three, scoring 11 points. He played very good defense, limiting Collison and Holiday substantially. Reynolds did not compile many more statistics -- he had 0 rebounds, 1 assist, and 0 steals -- but he did not commit a single turnover in 31 minutes, which was huge. Look for Reynolds to have a monster scoring game before this tournament is over.
  Grade: B+




• Corey Fisher (25 min)

  Corey Fisher was the best player on the court on Saturday and it was not even close. Fisher ran the Wildcats offense flawlessly -- literally without an error. In 25 minutes, Fisher was explosive and under control, simultaneously. He scored 13 points on 4-7 shooting, including another perfect performance from the foul line (4-4). His four baskets included some spectacular finishes that were impossible to defend. He passed for 5 assists and committed 0 turnovers, even while being guarded by Collison and Holiday, two of the best pickpockets in the nation. The only limit on Fisher's performance Saturday was his slight foul trouble, and he will have to monitor that issue against Duke on Thursday. The Blue Devils have been known to get their share of calls. This offense is now Fisher's to run, and he will be front and center in the Sweet 16.
  Grade: A
  
  

• Dante Cunningham (S, 24 min)

  Cunningham was spectacular on Saturday. Taking advantage of UCLA's questionable interior, Cunningham looked like a man against boys in the lane. He shot an excellent 7-11 from the field and a decent 4-7 from the line. He did not take any questionable jumpshots, instead focusing on running the floor and owning the post. He grabbed 10 rebounds, 2 steals, 1 block, and dished out 2 assists. He had 2 turnovers. Cunningham sat for most of the first half due to foul trouble, although he probably could have played with 2 fouls. Then again, the Wildcats were rolling, so Jay Wright's caution was justified this time.
  Grade: A





• Corey Stokes (23 min)

  Stokes was hot from long range on Saturday, especially in the first half. His early long-range bombs forced the Bruins to collapse less on Cunningham, which opened the interior. When Stokes is firing threes and Cunningham is patrolling the post -- all while Fisher is threatening to get to the rim at any given moment, and Anderson is running circles through the paint -- this offense is difficult to contain. Stokes was also good defensively on Saturday. He finished 4-9 from the three with 3 rebounds, 1 assist, and 1 turnover.
  Grade: B+
  
  

• Shane Clark (S, 16 min)

  Clark was back to his complementary game on Saturday, shooting an efficient 4-7 and bringing the help on the offensive glass. He grabbed 4 rebounds, had 1 steal and 1 assist each, and did not commit any turnovers. His defense improved since the American game, too. In limited doses, Clark's hustle game is a nice change of pace for the Wildcats.
  Grade: B
  
  

• Antonio Pena (10 min)

  Pena mysteriously did not see any time against American, but he got 10 minutes on Saturday. He was fairly ineffective in his playing time, however. He shot 0-1 from the field and 2-4 from the foul line -- hardly impressive numbers. He also committed 2 turnovers while grabbing only 1 rebound, with no assists, steals, or blocks. Pena will be a key post player next year, and hopefully he can pick it up as a reserve in the Sweet 16. One positive note was his physical defense on Saturday.
  Grade: D+
  
  

• Incomplete grades: Frank Tchuisi (1 min), Jason Colenda (1 min), Russell Wooten (1 min).



• Did not play: Maurice Sutton (RS).

'Nova, UCLA to clash in round 2

#11 Villanova (27-7) vs. #18 UCLA (26-8)
1:05 p.m., 21 March 2009 at the Wachovia Center

TV: CBS

Line: Villanova -2

Villanova returns to the Wachovia Center this afternoon to face UCLA for the right to go to the Sweet 16.

UCLA has been to three consecutive Final Fours, but the Bruins appear to be a bit weaker this year, earning just a 6-seed and beating an upstart VCU by a single point on Thursday.

Despite those chinks in UCLA's armor, the Bruins will be an extremely difficult out. UCLA point guard Darren Collison is a force on both offense and defense, and he figures to be the best player on the Wachovia Center court on Saturday.

Senior Josh Shipp has also been to three Final Fours, and is as athletic as they come at shooting guard.

UCLA also has one of the most talented freshman guards in the country, Jrue Holiday. Holiday excels on defense and is one of the best and quickest on-ball defenders in the nation.

This game will be one of the few times the guard-laden Wildcats actually have a disadvantage in the backcourt. Villanova has the chance to make up for that with their athletic scoring forwards, Dwayne Anderson and Dante Cunningham.

Oddsmakers have installed Villanova as 2-point favorites, largely, one would think, because of the home-court advantage. UCLA might actually have been favored on a neutral court.

Indeed, KenPom favors UCLA by one point even after factoring the home-court edge to the Wildcats. KenPom gives Villanova a 45 percent chance at victory.

Check out the other Villanova blogs linked at right for their previews, and then try to predict the game's final score in the comment thread below.

The winner of this game earns a trip to Boston next week to face the winner of Duke/Texas in the Sweet 16.

'Nova avoids disaster with win over American

Villanova 80
American 67
(box score)

American: 24-8
#11 Villanova: 27-7

Villanova used a furious second-half run and some very accommodating officiating to hold off an American team that looked for much of the game like it might pull off a major upset.

The Wildcats opened up limp in the first half and trailed by 10 at the break. Villanova would fall behind by as many as 14 points in the second half before turning the game around.

Villanova played to its low-major opponent's strength for the first part of the game, settling for outside jumpers and not guarding the perimeter closely.

The Wildcats started pushing the ball inside more in the second half, when they also benefitted from some very early American foul trouble.

Villanova was in the bonus for the game's final 12:27. American's most dangerous player, Garrison Carr, picked up his fourth personal foul with more than eight minutes to play.

Overall, Villanova attempted 29 free throws in the game, while American received just five foul shots. Some of that disparity can be attributed to the team's differing offensive attacks, but the officiating was certainly favorable to the pseudo-home-team Wildcats, as well.

One major question tonight was the total absence of Antonio Pena, who did not see the court at all. Is Jay Wright shortening the bench just for the sake of post-season shortening?

Logic would dictate that when the two tallest post players in the major American rotation are 6-8, it would be a good move to give Pena even more time than usual, not less. Pena, after all, is the team's second-best post scorer.

Chalk it up to another Jay-Wright playing-time mystery. One would hope Wright had a good reason this time and that it was not just an illogical whim; but one could very well be disappointed clinging to that hope.

With the win, Villanova avoided what would have been one of the most embarrassing losses in school history. The Wildcats will need to play at much higher level, much more consistently, if they hope to beat a non-Patriot League team in this tournament.

Congratulations to reader "Pena Power" for most closely predicting the final score.

Next up for Villanova is what should be an epic match with UCLA on Saturday.

The Bruins have been to three consecutive Final Fours, and are ranked #10 in the country by KenPom, nine places ahead of Villanova. Even after factoring in Villanova's semi-home-court advantage, KenPom gives UCLA a 53 percent chance to win.

On to the player grades. "READ MORE" below for player performance grades and analysis.

• Reggie Redding (S, 36 min)

  One would have liked a bit more offensively out of Redding in 36 minutes versus a lesser-talented team. He was 1-4 from the field and 1-2 from the line. He was 1-3 on three-point attempts, including one very ill-advised shot. He grabbed 4 boards, passed for 1 assist, and had 1 turnover. He did not get any steals, but did lead the team in blocks with 4.
  Grade: C-




• Dante Cunningham (S, 36 min)

  Cunningham handled much of the team's scoring load, putting in 25 on 9-16 shooting. As usual, he was great inside and on the break, but terrible outside. He has got to stop shooting outside jumpers: for one, he is a terrible jumpshooter from outside of 16 feet, and two, when he is out of the paint shooting them, he can't be inside the paint looking for rebounds. Cunningham was a perfect 7-7 from the foul line, which was crucial to the victory. He grabbed 7 rebounds, passed for 2 assists, and blocked 3 shots. He did have 4 turnovers, which is unacceptable against such an unathletic frontcourt.
  Grade: B-




• Scottie Reynolds (S, 35 min)

  Reynolds struggled on the offense, but did find a way to get the job done in the game. He is just simply not suited to be a point guard, no matter how much Jay Wright tries to shoehorn him into the position. As noted by the announcers, Reynolds made terrible decisions with the ball, and indeed, the game did not turn around for the Wildcats until Fisher took over point duties. Reynolds shot 2-7 from the field and missed all 3 of his three-point attempts. He was 4-5 at the foul line. He dished out just 2 assists and committed 4 turnovers, but at least he had 3 steals. Villanova is going to need Reynolds in stride in order to score against Collison, Holiday, and Shipp, which might be the best defensive backcourt in America.
  Grade: C-




• Dwayne Anderson (S, 31 min)

  Anderson basically won the game for Villanova. It was a dream match-up for Anderson; American had no one who could deal with his size, speed, athleticism, and scoring ability. Anderson shot a super-efficient 9-10 from the field, including 4-5 from the three. He was perfect from the foul line, shooting 3-3. He led the team in rebounds, with 8, stole 1 ball, passed for 1 assist, and committed 3 turnovers. He ran the floor well and played with energy and intensity. This is the kind of play Villanova needs from Anderson if the Wildcats plan to make a deep tournament run.
  Grade: A




• Corey Fisher (27 min)

  Along with Anderson, Fisher was the difference in this game. Fisher put the team on his back in the second half and willed the Wildcats to victory. How well he played definitely is not reflected accurately in the box score: Fisher shot just 1-5 from the field to score 11 points. Fisher, however, drew so many fouls with his aggressive penetration play that he almost got the Eagles in foul trouble single-handidly. Fisher was an excellent 9-10 from the foul line. He passed for a team-high 4 assists. His three turnovers were mitigated by his 3 steals. Fisher's defense was also excellent. My guess is that this game would never have been in question if Fisher played 37 minutes instead of 27.
  Grade: A-
  
  

• Shane Clark (S, 19 min)

  Clark is the worst defender in the rotation by an order of magnitude. He allowed so many threes in the first-half by unnecessarily doubling down on American's 6-8 post players, I didn't know what to say. Clark handled the ball slowly and clumsily and generally was in the wrong places at the wrong times. He did have one very nice interior assist to Cunningham, I will give him that. He also was a perfect 2-2 from the foul line. But he was 0-2 from the field and was not even a remote threat to score. He only grabbed 3 rebounds, tied for the lowest on the team. He passed for 3 assists and did not have any turnovers. He did, however, kill two fast-breaks prematurely (by my count) when the ball was routed through his hands. Nineteen minutes for Clark and zero for Pena is not a winning formula for this NCAA tournament.
  Grade: D-
  
  

• Corey Stokes (16 min)

  Stokes is actually Villanova's most efficient offensive player, statistically, and he needs more time on the court. Tonight, Stokes shot 2-6 from the field and a bad 1-5 from the three. He added 3 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 turnover, 1 steal, and 1 block. I would like to see him in the 23-25 minute range next time.
  Grade: C-
  
  
  

• Incomplete grades: None.



• Did not play: Antonio Pena (CD), Frank Tchuisi (CD), Russell Wooten (CD), Jason Colenda (CD), Maurice Sutton (RS).

How good is 'Nova's draw?

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We've had a few days to digest the NCAA tournament bracket, and we can start to draw some conclusions about Villanova's draw to Detroit.

At first, I was thrilled to find Villanova in the East regional -- not only for the excellent geography, but also because I consider Pittsburgh to be the weakest of the 1-seeds by far. There is no 1-seed I'd rather see Villanova play than Pittsburgh, especially since the Wildcats have already beaten the Panthers this year.

Similarly, I am happy Villanova has a potential Sweet 16 match-up with #2 Duke. The Blue Devils scare me a lot less than some of the other 2-seeds, especially Memphis.

But then I started to take a look at Villanova's earlier path to the Sweet 16 itself -- particularly, its mini-tournament in one of the two Philadelphia pods.

Of course, it is a tremendous advantage for Villanova to play its first two games in the Wachovia Center, its home court away from home. But are Villanova's podmates conducive to an easy trip to Boston for the Wildcats?

No way.

In the first round, Villanova draws a feisty American team. The Eagles return nearly everyone from last year, when they took 2-seed Tennessee to the brink of elimination in the first 35 minutes of the first round.

This year, American boasts an RPI in the 70s and actually received a vote in this week's AP top 25! Does that look like the profile of a lowly 14-seed?

Villanova, favored by 17, should win the game, of course. KenPom gives American just a 10 percent chance at the upset. If the Wildcats are able to hold on, they will not get a pushover in the second round.

Waiting for Villanova will be either #6 UCLA or #11 VCU.

First, let's start with VCU, in the event the Rams are able to pull off the upset.

VCU is ranked 55th this year by KenPom. The Rams also have excellent NCAA tournament experience from 2007, when they beat Duke in the first round and took Pitt to overtime in the second.

Senior guard Eric Maynor is back for one more tournament run before heading to the NBA. The Rams also have another future pro in big man Larry Sanders.

VCU is going to be a very tough out in this tournament.

But its opponent, #6 UCLA, looks even better.

Is UCLA the best-ever #6 seed in tournament history? Well, I can't think of one better. The Bruins have been to three consecutive Final Fours, and feature three seniors -- Darren Collison, Josh Shipp, and Alfred Aboya -- who have as much NCAA tournament experience as anyone in college basketball.

UCLA also has Jrue Holiday, one of the very best freshman guards in the country -- the Kemba Walker of the West.

The Bruins are ranked #17 in the nation by the coaches, and #18 by the writers. Those are significantly better rankings than the 21-24 range implied by the #6 seed.

Most frightening, however, is UCLA's KenPom rating: #9 in the country. For a 6-seed! Ahead of 3-seeds Mizzou (#10), Kansas (#11), and Villanova (#19). The Bruins are also ahead of 2-seeds MSU (#13) and Oklahoma (#17).

That means, according to KenPom, Villanova would be better off playing any of the other 3-seeds, two of the 2-seeds, all of the 4-seeds except Gonzaga, and all of the 5-seeds, than to play 6-seeded UCLA in the second round!

In fact, since UCLA is ranked a full 10 spots higher than Villanova, the Bruins would be significantly favored on a neutral court over the Wildcats. It's a good thing that the Wachovia Center will not be a neutral site for that game.

An obvious repudiation of this argument is the idea that the tournament is tough for everyone.

Well, not this tough. Look at the other 3-seeds this year and their paths to the sweet 16.

• Missouri: Cornell; Utah St./Marquette
  
• Kansas: ND State; Dayton/WVU
  
• Syracuse: SF Austin; Temple/ASU
  

There is not a team on that list I wouldn't rather play than UCLA.

All in all, if the Wildcats are lucky enough to get past American on Thursday, UCLA is a monster assignment. It's more like an elite-8 game than a second-round match-up.

VCU would not be a cake walk, either.

If not for the friendly confines of the Wachovia Center, I'd be even more worried. But with the home-court edge, I think Villanova gets to Boston -- barely.

Once the 'Cats are in Boston, it's the smoothest possible sailing to Detroit. I really like the team's chances vs. Duke or Pittsburgh (or Texas or FSU).

So what do you think? Vote in the poll below.

Did the selection committee give Villanova a bit more of a test, factoring in the pseudo-home-court advantage? Or did Villanova just get unlucky in its first-weekend draw?

Maybe you totally disagree with me, and love Villanova's draw to the Sweet 16.

Either way, let me know in the comments.