#11 Villanova (26-7) vs. American (24-7)
7:20 p.m., 19 March 2009 at the Wachovia Center
TV: CBS
Line: Villanova -17
After a full season of resume building, RPI watching, bubble debating, seed calculating, and bracket plotting; of wishing, hoping, thinking, praying, planning, and dreaming, the NCAA tournament is finally here.
Villanova, a 3-seed in the East region, draws the best possible geographic assignment for tonight's game against the 14th-seeded American Eagles.
The Wildcats need only take a short bus ride down 476-south and I-95, three-quarters an hour at most, to reach their first-weekend tournament site at the Wachovia Center in South Philadelphia.
Villanova has already played the NCAA-maximum three games here this season, and will try to make it an even five this weekend before potentially advancing to Boston.
American University itself has a relatively short trip from Washington, DC, and will try to pull off the upset.
The Eagles feature a senior-laden team that pushed 2-seed
Tennessee to the edge of elimination for 35 minutes last year.
American's biggest weapon is a pair of sub-6-foot guards, Garrison Carr and Derrick Mercer, who each typically play 90 percent or more of available minutes. Stopping these quick guards will be the main focus of Villanova's celebrated back-court of Scottie Reynolds, Corey Fisher, Reggie Redding, and Corey Stokes.
The Eagles have another pair of major contributors, two 6-8 forwards: Brian Gilmore and Stephen Lumpkins. Gilmore, in particular, is dangerous on offense. Dante Cunningham, Antonio Pena, Dwayne Anderson, and Shane Clark will look to shut those two down.
Villanova will be favored in every possible way: talent, experience, home-court, seeding, and expectations.
American will have nothing to lose, everything to gain, and the relevant memory of staying right with Tennessee for 88 percent of its tournament game last year.
Oddsmakers favor Villanova by 17, which I think is a tad high, even for a pseudo home game. It is the NCAA tournament, after all, and American has lost just seven games all year. The Eagles are also winners of 13 in a row, one of the nation's longer win streaks.
Of course, the best win on the season for American was a road victory against Jacksonville four months ago, so Villanova really should be in the driver's seat.
Stats oracle
KenPom predicts a 12-point Villanova victory, with a 90 percent chance for a Wildcats win.
Take a look at more previews than you can shake a stick at!
If Villanova is able to come away with the win, the Wildcats will face the winner of tonight's UCLA/VCU game on Saturday afternoon, also at the Wachovia Center.
Try to predict the game's final score in the comment section below.
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