Is 'Nova in a downward spiral?

GreyCat of Villanova by the Numbers has created an outstanding and informative post called Performance vs. Expectations, tracking Villanova's result in each game against the final margin predicted by Pomeroy.

The results, provided in awesome-chart-form by Greycat, look a little bit like the stock market over the past few years. As in, not good.

Below, I have modified GreyCat's chart in a highly unscientific and inartistic way by marking my approximation of the trend line in a bright-blue paint trail via Seashore.

The trend is certainly not encouraging. Click on the chart for a larger version.
Villanova's performance vs. expectations seems to have peaked sometime near the Marquette game, and has been falling ever since. Though Villanova has won eight of its last nine games, this is definitely not the momentum you'd want heading into post-season play.

As GreyCat remarks:

The blowout of Marquette marked a high point in expectations. If the team had "settled" on a performance plateau, I believe succeeding games would have "declined" toward the X axis. Instead the margins have gyrated widely but largely, below the X axis. Hopefully the Wildcats will refocus for the stretch run in the regular season.

This makes perfect sense, even if you're not mathematically inclined. After the Marquette win, expectations were highest. So if performance had remained level following that peak in expectation, the chart would have settled gently toward the axis. Instead, as Greycat points out, the data points have jumped mostly below the axis, a clear indication of under-perfomance.

GreyCat also notes the correlation between under-performance and being on the road in his excellent analysis. This is a bit troubling, but it is a good thing Villanova has the inside track on playing the first two NCAA rounds in Philadelphia.

Go read his post in full, as it is very interesting work.

What do you think of this decline versus expectations? Please remember, the "expectations" here were not created by a human, but by KenPom's cold and calculating statistical model, so don't just assume expectations were arbitrarily too high.

Nova News agrees on Fisher PT

I have been receiving a lot of heat in the comments section for blasting Jay Wright's mismanagement of his lineup, especially regarding point guard Corey Fisher's playing time.

After every single game, you could find here the drumbeat of criticism, charging that Fisher was receiving far too little playing time. My argument is that as the clearly best player on the team, Fisher should be leading the team in minutes. But he isn't, and in fact, trails behind several far inferior Wildcats in playing time.

I've further argued that Fisher's increase in playing time should not come at the expense of Reynolds, because the team plays best when they are both in there together, and ballhandling requires at least one of the two point guards to be in at all times.

Tim, the Nova News blogger, weighed in on his site tonight in agreement.

In a nice, long piece called Something Smells Fishy, Tim questions Jay Wright's decision to keep Fisher in limited time despite the growing statistical evidence that he is among the most effective Wildcats on the court.

Tim admits that although winning eight of nine games is nice, Fisher still needs more playing time:

I don't necessarily believe that Fisher should get more time at the expense of Reynolds because frankly, they are the two best guards on the team. Neither do I believe it is imperative for Fisher to start because he is valuable as a sixth man. What I am simply saying is Fisher should be getting more playing time, period.

Tim wraps up his essay by saying "the bottom line is Corey Fisher is too good to be sitting on the bench for 12+ minutes a game."

Agreed. And Fisher certainly shouldn't be sitting for 16 minutes when the 'Cats struggle to defeat one of the worst teams in major-conference history by a measly two points.

Something smells fishy, indeed.

Of course, this isn't the first time that Wright has refused to play a talented point guard for seemingly no earthly reason, and we all know how that one turned out.

Here's hoping Wright can change his ways before it's too late.

Red-hot 'Nova an underdog at WVU

#13 Villanova (20-4) at West Virginia (16-8)
9:00 p.m., 13 February 2009 at the WVU Coliseum

TV: ESPN

Line: WVU -4.5

Villanova, a winner of six in a row, travels to Morgantown, W.V. tonight to face a desperate Mountaineers team. Despite the Wildcats' recent success, especially on the offensive end, West Virginia is favored by a field goal. [Update: now 4.5]

This is an important game for Villanova, who could move into a virtual tie for a double-bye in the Big East tournament, and solidify its place in the national top ten. Villanova also lacks a real, quality road win, which will be an important factor in NCAA seeding.

The game is even more crucial for a West Virginia team that finds itself on the brink of missing the NCAA tournament. Despite being ranked #7 in the nation by KenPom, the Mountaineers have lost four of their last six games to fall below .500 in conference play.

All four of those losses, however, were to ranked teams, and West Virginia remains a dangerous opponent. KenPom predicts a 5-point Mountaineer victory, with only a 30 percent chance for a Villanova win.

The ever-expanding Villanova Blagosphere is amped up for this game. IBBW has a preview, as does VBTN. VUhoops' article has been up for literally days in anticipation. Nova News also gives his thoughts on the game. The returning Villanova Viewpoint blogger has yet to check in, but check back.

Take you shot at predicting the game's final score in the comment thread below. The closest guess wins a mention in the next post. If you'd like to win something a bit more substantial, like a Villanova folder from last year's tournament run, enter Let's Go Nova's tournament contest.