Report: Wright gabs thru open practice

Well, this is not encouraging.

The excellent Rush The Court blog attended Boston's open practice session today for all five mind-numbing hours, and files reports on each team's session.

Though the nonpartisan Rush The Court blogger concedes that 'Nova's practice was "more intense" than the preceding Xavier session, it looks like that was mostly due to Scottie Reynolds, who initiated the team's drills after warm-ups.

Rush The Court reports that during this time, Jay Wright spent nearly 30 minutes chatting with the CBS announcing team:

Where was Jay Wright while Reynolds was running the drills? Talking to Raftery and Lundquist of course. He spent almost 30 minutes talking to the CBS announcers. I certainly hope CBS got some amazing insights that they will share with us because they seemed to be talking up a storm.

I know it's cliche to say that Jay Wright is less an X-and-O's coach than a master of public relations, but here, at least, it seems to be the case.

It's nice that Jay Wright is confident enough to spend a major chunk of his team's practice session chewing the fat with the announcers, but is it really the best use of time, considering the major battle Villanova is in for tomorrow against Duke?

Duke's coach Mike Krzyzewski, to his credit, took the practice more seriously. According to RTC:

You could tell the difference in practice styles right away. [...] The other teams' practices were loosely organized, [but] the Duke practice was methodical and organized with a military precision. [...] The Duke session was much more crisp than the other sessions with very little wasted time. I don’t think I saw any of the players in the other sessions sweating (with the exception of Redford), but every Duke player was sweating by the end of the session.

Even for the Jay Wright apologists, it has to be a little troubling to hear about Wright gabbing away with the announcers for half an hour just one day before the biggest Villanova game in three years.

Meanwhile, Krzyzewski looked to have used his time much more efficiently, even though his team is a solid 2-point favorite in the game.

Wright's lackadaisical approach to practice may not -- and hopefully will not -- cost Villanova the game, but it should make Villanova fans a little less confident about the Wildcats' chances Thursday night.


[Photo credit: rushthecourt.net]

Jay Wright blunders away key game

If there were ever any question about how poor an end-game coach Jay Wright is, that question was answered today, and then some.

Jay Wright made just about every possible end-game error in the final minutes of a close game against Georgetown.

From right off the top of my head:

1. Failing to make sure his team knew the shot clock was running down in a timeout huddle. What was he doing in there? What is being discussed in timeouts if not the immediate tactical consideration of the current possession? Reynolds was forced to hoist a 30-footer upon realizing at the last second the shot clock was nearly down to zero. Horrendous tactical coaching.
   
   
2. Ridiculous "offense-defense" substitution, yanking both point guards for defense. On a crucial possession, Georgetown point guard Chris Wright was able to blow by Reggie Redding for an easy layup because there was no one quick enough to guard him. This is why point guards typically guard other point guards, especially ones as talented as Wright. Horrible coaching.
   
   
3. Down three with under a minute to go and coming off a timeout, Villanova's offense is routed through Reggie Redding? Is that serious? And Redding just throws the ball away. And this is off a timeout? That's the best you can do, Jay? Terrible coaching.
   
   
4. Down three with under 30 seconds left, Wright keeps Corey Fisher on the bench. Why? Fisher is the team's best penetrator. Clearly, in that situation, there is plenty of time left for a drive to the basket. Just score quickly. Instead, Villanova wastes 10-15 seconds, and Corey Stokes takes a horrible, off-balance, guarded three, which misses. Some of the worst coaching of the year.
   
   
5. Down by five with under 10 seconds to go, Stokes hits a long three to pull the 'Cats within two points with exactly 3.5 seconds left. Wright, properly, calls timeout, and then benches Reynolds and leaves Fisher out. Result? No one on Villanova can even catch Chris Wright to foul him, and the final 3.5 seconds (eternity in a basketball game) tick away with Villanova unable to even give a foul. Off a timeout! And, may I ask, what was Jay Wright's plan if, miraculously, his team was able to get a turnover? His two best scorers were on the bench! If we got a turnover with 2 seconds left in Georgetown's back-court, there was no one to shoot it but Stokes! Was Wright's plan to call a timeout there, with 1 second left? Horrible, horrible, horrible.

I would love to hear any argument that Jay Wright didn't cost the team this game. The five above points don't even go into how lazy, lackadaisical, and unmotivated the team seemed to play the entire game. Len Elmore, calling the game, even said the Wildcats seemed "content" out there while trailing, lacking any hunger to win the game. Embarrassing.

Villanova just lost a game where the winning team scored TWO field goals in the last 9:22 of the game. You read that correctly. It's quite an accomplishment, to lose such a game.

I have been saying for the entire year that Wright's poor end-game tactics would cost this team in a big spot. Well, it doesn't get much bigger than this. Villanova was in the absolute driver's seat for both a double-bye in the Big East tournament, with a double-bye all but guaranteed by winning out. The Wildcats also were in position to land the top-3 seed in the NCAA tournament likely needed to stay in the Wachovia Center.

A lot of good playing at home in the Wachovia Center did today. Thanks to Wright's tactical and strategic blunders, Villanova is now on the outside looking in for both a double-bye, which is unlikely now, and a top-3 seed for the NCAA tournament.

But neither of those tournaments will matter much to Villanova fans if Jay Wright continues to cost his team close games by end-game mismanagement that would make a grammar-school jayvee coach cringe. I know my grammar school coach would not have been happy watching this game.

And neither was I.

A traditional recap with player grades will be up by Sunday night. Forget the grades; you all know how I feel about this game, and most of you disagree with me. Let's move on with the Notre Dame preview.

Feel free to discuss the end-game situation in the comment thread.

Is 'Nova in a downward spiral?

GreyCat of Villanova by the Numbers has created an outstanding and informative post called Performance vs. Expectations, tracking Villanova's result in each game against the final margin predicted by Pomeroy.

The results, provided in awesome-chart-form by Greycat, look a little bit like the stock market over the past few years. As in, not good.

Below, I have modified GreyCat's chart in a highly unscientific and inartistic way by marking my approximation of the trend line in a bright-blue paint trail via Seashore.

The trend is certainly not encouraging. Click on the chart for a larger version.
Villanova's performance vs. expectations seems to have peaked sometime near the Marquette game, and has been falling ever since. Though Villanova has won eight of its last nine games, this is definitely not the momentum you'd want heading into post-season play.

As GreyCat remarks:

The blowout of Marquette marked a high point in expectations. If the team had "settled" on a performance plateau, I believe succeeding games would have "declined" toward the X axis. Instead the margins have gyrated widely but largely, below the X axis. Hopefully the Wildcats will refocus for the stretch run in the regular season.

This makes perfect sense, even if you're not mathematically inclined. After the Marquette win, expectations were highest. So if performance had remained level following that peak in expectation, the chart would have settled gently toward the axis. Instead, as Greycat points out, the data points have jumped mostly below the axis, a clear indication of under-perfomance.

GreyCat also notes the correlation between under-performance and being on the road in his excellent analysis. This is a bit troubling, but it is a good thing Villanova has the inside track on playing the first two NCAA rounds in Philadelphia.

Go read his post in full, as it is very interesting work.

What do you think of this decline versus expectations? Please remember, the "expectations" here were not created by a human, but by KenPom's cold and calculating statistical model, so don't just assume expectations were arbitrarily too high.

DRUMMOND TO TRANSFER

Casiem Drummond, a junior and Villanova's only true center, has decided to pursue transfer opportunities, according to a press release from campus today.

Drummond had been suspended for at least one game this season for undisclosed disciplinary reasons. Though Drummond had a history of injury, his development under the basket looked like it had been progressing nicely.

Drummond's departure leaves Villanova with an even thinner rotation, and may affect the planned redshirt of freshman forward Maurice Sutton.

Losing Drummond is a major blow to Villanova's frontcourt, which now consists solely of Dante Cunningham and Antonio Pena. The Wildcats literally have no one off the bench to bring into the paint outside of Frank Tchuisi, who's been hopeless his entire career, and Shane Clark, who is more suited to wing play.

Villanova fans excited about the Wildcats' top-20 ranking may have to adjust expectations drastically for this season considering the complete and total lack of frontcourt depth a full month before Big East play.

"Casiem is interested in finding a place where he can earn significantly more playing time than he has received here," said Jay Wright. "Our staff is doing all it can to help him locate that opportunity. Cas' has made strides in his time with us and we appreciate all his efforts on behalf of our basketball family."

One has to take Wright's statement with a grain of salt, because it is unlikely that Drummond could not have earned significant playing time on the Main Line under ideal conditions. Indeed, Drummond started much of last season at center and the natural place for him this year would have been starting at the 5, moving Cunningham to his preferred spot at the 4.

Rumors have been swirling all over Villanova's campus that Drummond was asked to leave the team by Wright, and not the other way around, as claimed in the official story.

Casiem Drummond adds his name to a growing list of recent Villanova transfers, which includes guards Malcolm Grant and Bilal Benn, and forwards Andrew Ott and (pseudo-transfer) Kraidon Woods.

One has to wonder if something is wrong in the state of Villanova basketball, with four transfers and one broken committment in just over two years. Jay Wright likes to talk about how Villanova basketball is a family first and foremost, but it sure is a family that loses a lot of members.

It's possible that leaving was truly the best option for all five of these players, but losing nearly half of your scholarship players to transfer in a three-year period is not the sign of a stable program.

Villanova's recent success in the NCAA tournament and the top-25 rankings may obscure some of this ugliness, but it is there, under the surface, that Jay Wright loses a significant percentage of the student-athletes he pledged were to become lifelong members of his Villanova basketball family.

Drummond's transfer drops the current regular rotation for Villanova down to seven: Reynolds, Fisher, Pena, Cunningham, Stokes, Clark, and Redding. Dwayne Anderson will be eight when he returns from injury.

Villanova cannot afford to lose any more depth, especially with the brutal Big East schedule looming.