Villanova faces American in tourney opener

#11 Villanova (26-7) vs. American (24-7)
7:20 p.m., 19 March 2009 at the Wachovia Center

TV: CBS

Line: Villanova -17

After a full season of resume building, RPI watching, bubble debating, seed calculating, and bracket plotting; of wishing, hoping, thinking, praying, planning, and dreaming, the NCAA tournament is finally here.

Villanova, a 3-seed in the East region, draws the best possible geographic assignment for tonight's game against the 14th-seeded American Eagles.

The Wildcats need only take a short bus ride down 476-south and I-95, three-quarters an hour at most, to reach their first-weekend tournament site at the Wachovia Center in South Philadelphia.

Villanova has already played the NCAA-maximum three games here this season, and will try to make it an even five this weekend before potentially advancing to Boston.

American University itself has a relatively short trip from Washington, DC, and will try to pull off the upset.

The Eagles feature a senior-laden team that pushed 2-seed Tennessee to the edge of elimination for 35 minutes last year.

American's biggest weapon is a pair of sub-6-foot guards, Garrison Carr and Derrick Mercer, who each typically play 90 percent or more of available minutes. Stopping these quick guards will be the main focus of Villanova's celebrated back-court of Scottie Reynolds, Corey Fisher, Reggie Redding, and Corey Stokes.

The Eagles have another pair of major contributors, two 6-8 forwards: Brian Gilmore and Stephen Lumpkins. Gilmore, in particular, is dangerous on offense. Dante Cunningham, Antonio Pena, Dwayne Anderson, and Shane Clark will look to shut those two down.

Villanova will be favored in every possible way: talent, experience, home-court, seeding, and expectations.

American will have nothing to lose, everything to gain, and the relevant memory of staying right with Tennessee for 88 percent of its tournament game last year.

Oddsmakers favor Villanova by 17, which I think is a tad high, even for a pseudo home game. It is the NCAA tournament, after all, and American has lost just seven games all year. The Eagles are also winners of 13 in a row, one of the nation's longer win streaks.

Of course, the best win on the season for American was a road victory against Jacksonville four months ago, so Villanova really should be in the driver's seat.

Stats oracle KenPom predicts a 12-point Villanova victory, with a 90 percent chance for a Wildcats win.

Take a look at more previews than you can shake a stick at!

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• VUhoops 1 and 2!
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• Villanova Viewpoint 1, 2, and 3!

If Villanova is able to come away with the win, the Wildcats will face the winner of tonight's UCLA/VCU game on Saturday afternoon, also at the Wachovia Center.

Try to predict the game's final score in the comment section below.

Selection Sunday predictions

The official NCAA tournament brackets are just a few hours away, but there's still time to make some quick predictions.

First of all, I would be very surprised if Villanova is not a 3-seed in Philadelphia for the Thursday-Saturday games at the Wachovia Center. It's looking very likely the 'Cats will be sent to South Philadelphia to play a 14-seed on Thursday.

My wild guess for Villanova's first-round opponent? East Tennessee State.

Louisville, Pittsburgh, North Carolina, and Memphis look pretty solid as the one-seeds. Duke, Connecticut, Michigan State, and Oklahoma should be the two seeds. If any of those teams could swap places, it would be UConn and Memphis, but with 25 straight wins and an absolute demolition of the C-USA, it would be unfair to the Tigers to leave them off the top line.

In the Big East, I have Syracuse as a solid #4, Marquette as a weak #6, and West Virginia as a solid #6. Providence heads to the NIT as a 2-seed, a victim of a brutal Big East schedule and a tight bubble due to mediocrity in the Big Ten and the SEC.

I have Penn State out. San Diego State in. Maryland in. St. Mary's out. (That cheap tactic of scheduling a cupcake after the conference tournament cannot be rewarded!) Arizona gets in, and its streak of tournament appearances survives one more year. Minnesota? Sorry Tubby. The Gophers are out despite his excellent coaching job turning that team around. Wisconsin is in, and is the safest of all the teams listed in this paragraph.

I think Creighton gets in as the very last team, as long as Tennessee holds off Mississippi St. this afternoon in the SEC final.

If I were in charge of the committee, Davidson would be in on the strength of a recovered Stephen Curry alone. But all signs point to Davidson heading to the NIT, where Curry will have one more chance to perform his magic in Madison Square Garden before heading to the NBA. 

We'll see how I did in a few hours.

What are your bracket predictions?

'Nova-Clemson tips 9:50 p.m. Friday

The official tournament schedule (PDF) with game times has been released, and Villanova will play at 9:50 p.m. EDT on Friday night in the second-latest game of the first round.

Villanova vs. Clemson will begin about five minutes before the Memphis-Texas (Arlington) game, and should be "protected" in the Philadelphia CBS market. Outside of protected markets, CBS will air what it feels is the best game going on.

The 9:50 p.m. Villanova-Clemson start time means the game will have a larger potential audience than early afternoon games.

See below for the full bracket, with start times. Click on the bracket for a larger version.